Gruelling battle awaits BJP in Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland

The Election Commission of India on Wednesday announced the assembly polls schedule for the three north-eastern states of Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland, a precursor to a series of polls to the six more state assemblies later this year. This in a way will set the stage for a much bigger battle of ballots in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Tripura’s constituencies will vote in a single phase on February 16 followed by Meghalaya and Nagaland on February 27. Votes will be counted in all three states on March 2. The BJP is in power in Tripura.

It is a part of the ruling coalition with the National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) in Nagaland and National People’s Party (NPP) in Meghalaya. A total of 62.8 lakh voters are eligible to cast their vote in the three states, with around 2.8 lakh new voters added to the list this time round. The coming polls in the three states may as well be a litmus test for the BJP seeking to make a comeback. With Lok Sabha elections just a little over a year away, the party will loathe to end the 2023 electioneering calendar with a negative showing.

For, in a country where leaders’ charisma, symbolism and numerical supremacy not to speak of caste equations count so much, a poor showing in any of the poll-bound states may as well send an adverse signal to the electorate. Going by the ground reports, the situation obtaining in the three poll-bound states is far from favourable for the BJP. Despite registering a historic victory against a once dominant CPM in Tripura in 2018 assembly elections, the BJP this time finds itself locked in a four cornered contest with Congress, CPM and TMC led by Mamata Banerjee in the fray.

The BJP has also to contend with the growing clout of royal scion Praydut Roy Barman Debbarma’s tribal party TIPRA Motha and problems within its tribal ally IPFT. No wonder, during his recent visit to Tripura, BJP’s poll strategist and a minister in the Modi government, Amit Shah showered praise on the Manikya royal dynasty to which royal scion Praydut Roy belongs. Then, there is a spectre of a possible CPM-Congress joint fight against the BJP looming large in the state. Similarly, in Meghalaya where the BJP is in power, there have been reports of its strained relations with the NPP.

The BJP’s alleged stand against conversion has created an impression that it is an ‘anti-Christian’ party. According to poll pundits, this may go against the BJP which may also find going tough against TMC leader and former Congress leader and chief minister Mukul Sangma. Sangma’s home turf of Garo Hills sends as many as 24 MLAs to the 60-member Assembly. But TMC is being branded as a Bengali party and that is not good news for the party making its poll debut in the State.

In Nagaland, elections this time will be held under the shadow of a boycott call given by Eastern Nagaland Peoples’ Organisation (ENPO), representing the six remote and backward eastern districts, seeking an independent state of East Nagaland. The Naga People’s Front (NPF), which once ruled the state, will contest against the BJP. Both BJP and National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP), like in 2018, have announced a prepoll alliance. Given the scenario, it is unlikely to be a cakewalk for the BJP this time around. A gruelling battle awaits the party ahead.