Which war is Xi Jinping directing from his bunker?

Sometime in 2020, China built a large 100-home civilian village inside disputed territory between the PRC’s Tibet Autonomous Region and India’s Arunachal Pradesh. This, alongside Chinese occupation of disputed territory along the Indo-China border has rattled Delhi. China’s President Xi Jinping, set to be anointed for an unprecedented third term as  president, at the 20th party Congress conclave in Beijing, has similarly confronted Taiwan and opened too many fronts. China’s bunker wars, unravelling brick by brick?

A report in the New York Times says “There is a bunker mentality in China right now”.  One gets into a bunker only during a war. Which war is China fighting?  The Chinese talk of ‘full spectrum’ wars beyond the ‘tangible’ domains of air, land and sea and into the ‘intangible’ domains of economy, diplomacy, energy, space, and electromagnetic spectrum. Their ‘three war strategy’ weaponizes information, influence operations and ‘lawfare’ as force multipliers. Currently, China is fighting in some dimensions, while preparing to fight in other domains in future. Where is it eventually headed?  The cold war was an ideologically driven, two dimensional military competition between the Soviet Union and the United States. The economic and social domains were fractured. In modern day confrontations, wars are three dimensional; waged simultaneously in multiple domains. One side makes a move in one domain. The riposte comes in another and the recoil in the third. Globalisation and interdependence have changed the rules of the game. No one can emerge a clear winner. Hence, wars – tangible or intangible – will be largely ‘local’, with incremental objectives. ‘Total protracted war’ is integration of ‘local wars’ in multiple domains in a larger time frame. Is that what Xi Jinping intends?

Before 2020, Xi Jinping travelled extensively at a frenetic pace. He has not left China since then. Xi has turned inwards on domestic matters, been reluctant to compromise on global issues and seems unaffected by China’s declining international reputation. He has taken China on a nationalistic high. International domination rather than cooperation is his mantra. Xi Jinping’s goal is to stay in power, and be the greatest Chinese leader of all time. From his bunker, the supreme leader is directing China’s wars on his terms and pace. However, he must first beat the Coronavirus pandemic. China publicised its victory over the virus last year. Chinese were repeatedly brainwashed that they were better off than others. However, the Delta variant counter attacked with great ferocity.  It mutated, penetrated deep and appeared in clusters all over China, at greater frequency. Though the case numbers are low, China steadfastly chases full elimination.  Zero Covid is now a cause of national pride and prestige, used to highlight China’s superior communist governance and success in containment. While all countries are learning to live with the virus, China is taking pride in attempting to eradicate it, albeit at a steep cost.

China’s economic growth is slowing, fitfully recovering and ebbing as the virus wanes and surges. The policy is affecting people. Even a single case leads to multiple prolonged lockdowns including in major cities, forcibly created virus free buffer zones, loss of jobs, factories shut, flights and trains cancelled, and more, despite 75 per cent of the Chinese population being fully vaccinated. Chinese vaccines have clearly been ineffective. People are getting fed up with being tested almost daily. To top it off, China has asked people to stock up on essentials, as it is enforcing more stringent restrictions to curb the increasing viral outbreaks. China is at war – against the virus, and to keep its people on its side. This is China’s war with the virus, and it is complicated.

Its plans to militarily re-unite Taiwan are even more so. As per estimates, China will be in a position to do that in two years at the earliest. Two years is a long time in geopolitics. Hence, it could bring forward the attempt if opportunity presents itself, or if there is adequate provocation. However, it risks going to battle in the ‘tangible’ domains, and losing the war in ‘intangible’ domains. What is known is that China wants to take possession of Taiwan’s semiconductor manufacturing industry (TSMC).

However, the semiconductor industry is like quicksilver. It is built on technology and trust. TSMC builds chips with designs, tools and technology mostly from American companies. They share designs and IPRs based on trust built over years. China cannot get around that by seizing Taiwan or TSMC. That gets it nothing.