BJP retains North-East, but who actually won?

There are many in the saffron camp who are exulting after the victory of the BJP and its allies in the three North-Eastern states on Thursday while claiming that this is further indication that PM Modi and the party’s popularity have not been dented by anti-incumbency or other factors.

The party has come back to power albeit with a reduced majority in Tripura and has put up a good show in Nagaland with its partner, the NDPP, while in Meghalaya, there are all indications that the biggest party, the NPP of Conrad Sangma, may tie up with the BJP and smaller parties to form the government. But is this really a BJP sweep as being projected by strategy managers of the party? Or was it because the party succeeded in firming up the right kind of alliances with regional outfits which has once again proved that they are the real bosses of North-East politics.

For instance in Meghalaya and Nagaland, the BJP is nowhere near becoming the dominant force. In Nagaland, the BJP contested 20 seats but won only 12 and it is the regional political party, NDPP, led by stalwart Neiphiu Rio, that won 25 seats out of the 40 it contested to give the alliance a majority. No different is the story in Meghalaya where the saffronists could pick up only two seats. But it may be part of the government thanks to the fact that no party has been able to garner a majority in the Assembly.

The real winner in Meghalaya is Conrad Sangma’s National People’s Party, again a regional outfit, which is likely to tie up with the BJP and regional outfits to form the next government. So, the BJP actually managed to back the winning horses in both Nagaland and Meghalaya, and piggy backed on their success. One important point to note here is here is that no regional party vying for power, can afford to ignore the party in governance at the Centre and this could have played a role in making Sangma cosy up to the BJP.

In Tripura again, it was a purely regional party, the Tipra Motha which draws strength from tribal votes, which put up the most impressive performance winning as many as 13 seats. It goes to prove that regional outfits hold the final say in the North-East whatever may be the machinations of national parties. The BJP on the contrary, saw its tally come down from 36 to 32 in Tripura while its ally, the IPFT, saw its seat share slide from eight in the previous Assembly to a mere one.

Interestingly, in Meghalaya, the BJP broke off its alliance with the ruling NPP just before the elections levelling serious charges of corruption against the Sangma-led government and decided to fight alone. Now, post elections, it is all praise for Sangma and is set to join the coalition government. Such pacts go to prove the point that in politics, pacts are made according to convenience and there are no permanent friends or foes.

So contrary to the tall claims of the BJP, it is not the immense popularity of the saffron party in the three North-Eastern states that led to it retaining power; it is the popularity and success of its regional alliance partners that worked the magic once again in Nagaland and Meghalaya. Tripura could be the only exception to this rule, where the political and ideological vacuum left by long Left rule and the weak presence of the Congress, gave the lotus the right conditions to bloom, backed by a solid network of the RSS.