Kerala, a distant dream for BJP

Soon after the comfortable Assembly poll victory in the three north-eastern states where the BJP seized power with the help of its allies, PM Narendra Modi had declared that the party would target Kerala for a similar victory. The next Assembly polls in the southern state are still some time away in 2026, but the remark did trigger a full-fledged debate in political circles on how realistic the BJP expectations are. There are similarities of course between the North-East and Kerala.

They both have a huge Christian population. In God’s Own Country, it is 60 lakhs – about 18 percent of the total state population of 3.34 crore. These voters play a significant role in deciding the fortunes in most constituencies, particularly those in the central parts of the state, known as the Christian belt. Kerala also has a massive Muslim populace of around 88 lakh making up for 26 percent of the total population and they too could make or break the poll prospects of any candidate.

However, one cannot help wondering whether the BJP really swept the polls in the North-East as is being claimed by saffron sympathisers. In both Nagaland and Meghalaya – where the Christian population is 70-80 per cent – the BJP was able to be on the winning side because its poll managers could strike the right kinds of alliances with parties like the NDPP and NPP respectively.

In Meghalaya, the BJP could win only two seats but will have its ministers while its show in Nagaland was slightly better at 12 seats, primarily because of the huge popularity of its ally, the NDPP and its CM Neiphiu Rio with the regional outfit winning 25 seats. Going by this analogy, are the saffronists looking to firm up alliances with regional outfits in Kerala too? There are enough of them; for instance the Kerala Congress and its many splinter factions command the loyalties of a good proportion of the Christian population.

There are factions of the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) and there is the Muslim League but it would be naïve to expect them to even think of an alliance with the BJP considering the anti-minority rhetoric of the saffron party. Nor are breakaway factions of the CPI(M) likely to entertain any thoughts of being part of a BJP alliance knowing the antipathy the Malayali has for anything they consider non-secular.

A look at Kerala’s poll history reveals that it is known to dump any party whose secular credentials are in doubt and this could be one reason why the BJP could not retain even the one seat it won in 2016, in the Assembly polls in 2021. It has also consistently fared poorly in the Parliament polls, which forced the party top brass to get one of its Kerala leaders elected from a northern state, so that he could be made minister and ensure that the state had representation at the Centre! So is the BJP’s hope of making a dent in Kerala a bit too far-fetched?

Or is the party hoping to make the best of the dissatisfaction among some constituents in the two dominant fronts – the CPI(M)- led LDF and the Congress-led UDF – to wean them away and carve out a niche for itself in the rough and tumble of Kerala politics? Going by current indications, Kerala is still a long way away from giving a foothold to the BJP and it remains to be seen what political strategy the party’s poll managers would adopt in the coming days and months to realise PM Modi’s dream.