Moscow Mission: Can India trust Russia?

Russia’s closeness with China and its willingness to supply arms to Pakistan should worry New Delhi

Seshadri Chari

Nostalgia, memories, and finer aspects of New Delhi’s historic relationship with Moscow—dating back to the Non-Aligned Movement—were revisited last week when Russian President Vladimir Putin came to Delhi with a long list of defense merchandise for sale. Besides the Quad partners, Russia becomes the fourth country with which India will have a 2+2 format dialogue status. The six-hour summit between the leaders ended with the signing of nearly 28 agreements and a joint statement.

The overwhelming emphasis on military hardware and strategic state-run projects—owned and operated by the respective states—is reminiscent of the public sector days during the non-aligned era of the rupee-ruble trade. India has moved far ahead and wound up most of its public sector undertakings, while Moscow maintains a strong government control over trade. New Delhi will have to overcome this mismatch and include more bilateral trade deals in the coming days.

New Delhi has also moved away from the constraints of non-alignment by entering into bilateral agreements with Quad countries and others on intelligence sharing—pertaining to logistics, security, and strategic maritime interests. Being part of the West’s intelligence and security framework will not go very well with the old and trusted non-alignment partner. How best the national capital is able to work with the two power structures with different timelines is yet to be seen.

Russia’s support to India’s adversaries

Moscow’s not-so-concealed willingness to sell military hardware to Islamabad gives strength to Pakistan’s anti-India activities, ostensibly blamed on non-state actors present there. It is no secret that a bulk of Pakistan’s military muscle is used against India and the groups in Balochistan, who are seeking freedom from Islamabad and raising their voice against Beijing’s unrestricted exploitation of their land and the Gwadar port.

New Delhi should be aware of Russia’s engagements with India’s adversary—or rather, bête noire—China. The two have a thirty-year energy security agreement which includes an 8,000-km-long gas pipeline from Siberia to China. The Power of Siberia added a new ‘Eastern’ dimension to their cross-border energy trade. Ironically, the agreement was activated in the first week of December 2019, exactly two years before Putin’s Delhi visit last week. The geopolitical significance of the Russia-China camaraderie in the context of a strong Eurasia should not be lost on the strategic community in India.

Can’t see friends and foes alike

China and Pakistan pose a great challenge to India’s security in the west and north. The Indian defense and security establishment has made no secret of its concerns. Air Chief Marshal V. R. Chaudhari has said, “China poses a significant and long-term challenge to India’s strategic goals. Both the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) have enhanced their military capabilities in equipment and infrastructure.”

One hopes that New Delhi has briefed Moscow about these challenges. Considering the compulsions of regional challenges, the former can hardly afford to stick to its non-alignment framework while dealing with friends and foes alike.

Latest reports indicate that Russia has increased its troop presence near Ukraine’s border, amplifying the tensions there. It is also reported to have moved a strong army contingent to its border with Belarus. The US’s attempts to include Kiev into NATO have brought the two Cold War-era rivals on a path of conflict. True to its non-alignment parameters, New Delhi has maintained a stoic silence on the conflict. In the event of the conflict escalating, the global focus would again shift to power posturing in Eurasia, necessitating it to take a clearer stand.

India remains multipolar, but that’s in danger too

In the existing circumstances, India prefers to remain multipolar in the larger global power equation. Its view on the UN structural reforms hinges on its lack of efficacy in resolving emerging global flashpoints. Articulating New Delhi’s views, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar had observed last year that genuine multilateralism, which emerged after the Second World War, is in serious danger. “We are seeing more and more balance of interests, the bigger countries even more so really being very much focused on their own interests,” he added.

The post-Cold War world has come a long way in reframing the global order. While its core pri