Stage Set for a Fierce Battle

The stage is now set for a battle royale in Karnataka for the 224-member Assembly. As the state goes to polls, the next fortnight is all likely to see political temperature soaring in tandem with the rising decibels from the streets. Altogether 2,613 candidates will be trying their luck for the 224 hot seats. As per the indications, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress are the principal combatants all across the state.

However, the Janata Dal Secular (JDS) with its base in the Old Mysore area districts would be turning it triangular in its bid to maximize its gains. It is going to be no-holds-barred contest this time as the BJP would not like the only southern state to slip out of its grip. Stakes are high for the party as it never has won a simple majority in the State. Winning 104 seats, it had emerged the major party in 2018 while the Congress had bagged 80 seats. The JDS tally was 37.

However, in terms of popular votes the Congress had captured 38% votes against BJP’s 36% and the JDS’ 19%. It was only after Mr Yediyurappa’s 48-hour stint in office and failure to muster a majority in the house, that the Congress and the JDS could cobble a coalition government which fell 14 months later due to defections engineered by a BJP that had emerged triumphant in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. By all yardsticks the BJP is on a sticky wicket this time.

Bommai Government carries the stigma of ‘40% Corruption government’, an allegation made by the State Contractors Association and later reinforced by a couple of suicides by contractors despondent about huge losses due to prevalence of massive bribery. Recovery of Rs. 8 crore in cash from a BJP MLA’s house and arrest of his bureaucrat son accepting a packet of Rs. 40 lakhs too have further sullied the image of the party.

Rising unemployment in the state, absence of will and intention to fill huge number of vacancies within administration, rising wave of hate crime previously unknown in the state have stacked several negatives on the side of the ruling party. These however may not have been major hurdles for the BJP which has faced a rising tide of party desertions finding itself unable to accommodate aspirations of several leaders.

That two major ones, a former chief minister and a deputy chief minister are among the rebels and deserters, has certainly made the party’s prospects worrisome, particularly among the Lingayat, the principal votebank of the party. In one sense, the BJP’s sins are coming back to haunt the party. A tussle has been brewing all through the four years of its rule between old loyalists who were denied ministerial portfolios and new defectors who walked away with loaves and fishes of the office.

However, the ruling party’s major strength lies in whirlwind campaigning by its two powerful icons from the Centre. As for the Indian National Congress, the constant tug-of-war between two chief ministerial aspirants—Siddramaiah and D. K. Shivakumar—is the major impediment in putting up a united face before the electorate.

The party has failed to satisfy queries on the score. BJP’s massive push towards winning Vokkaligas in the Cauvery basin districts is also a formidable challenge for both the Congress as well as the JDS. The image of the Janata Dal Secular has received bruises in the wake of intra-Devegowda family tussle over nominations (or its refusal to certain family members).

Though it seems to have resolved it as of now, the skirmishes have exposed the fault lines within the power-centre. The communally fractious issues that were raised by the BJP do not seem to be yielding the desired dividends for the party and one would hope the watchful machinery of the Election Commission will remain alert to abort such machinations, if any, in the run up to the polls slated on May 10.