JD(S) road to redemption wide open, say experts

Maqsood Maniyar | NT

Bengaluru: Social scientists believe the narrative that the JD(S) is facing an existential crisis is overstated, adding that revival was within its grasp.

Social scientists cited structural reforms as a solution. The regional party saw its tally dip from 37 seats in 2018 to a measly 19 and vote share plummet alarmingly from 18.3 per cent in the previous polls to 13.3 per cent this time around.

Peasant, Vokkaliga backing

Mysore University political science professor Muzaffar Assadi said that JD(S) represented farmers and Vokkaligas, who are an agriculturalist caste, and would therefore always stand a chance.

He made a comparative analysis between JD(S) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) which represented Jatts, also a caste group associated with farming and peasants in general. Assadi pointed out that the Jatts, particularly those from western UP, might have gone over to the BJP but would come back to the RLD fold were they to feel that their interests weren’t being upheld in the BJP.

“Janata Dal (Secular) represents two interests. One is the peasant. As long as there are peasants, this party exists. Second, basically it is a Vokkaliga party. As long as they have this alternative, Vokkaligas would remain with the JD(S). I spoke to many people in Old Mysuru and what happened this time around is that they thought ‘Dkshi’ (Karnataka Congress chief and Vokkaliga leader DK Shivakumar) would become the chief minister. That is one of the factors that hurt the JD(S). Moreover, Muslim JD(S) voters went over to the Congress this time,” Assadi said.

Still relevant in Old Mysuru?

Ramakrishna Hegde Chair Professor at Institute of Social and Economic Change (ISEC) Chandan Gowda said BJP was still in third place in Old Mysuru region, adding that organisational changes may yet rescue the JD(S). “It’s gonna do some serious organisational overhaul. Nikhil (Kumaraswamy) resigning (as party youth wing president) was important. If Sharangouda (Patil) gets that post, it’s a good thing. If they really go about correcting all the mistakes, they are still in second place in Old Mysuru (and can recover),” he said, adding that perhaps JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy should have set aside more time to campaign in Old Mysuru rather than taking his Pancharatna Rath Yatra to other parts of Karnataka for long periods.

Fearful of MLAs being poached

Professor Narayana A from the school of policy and governance at the Azim Premji University held that the JD(S) could stage a comeback. “They can still bounce back with the right kind of strategy but I think they fear the Congress or BJP poaching their MLAs,” he said. “The major challenges they face are two. One is money. When you go long periods without power, sometimes it makes it difficult to sustain financially. The second problem is leadership. They won’t have the advantage of having Mr Devegowda for too long because of his age,” Narayana said, adding that Kumaraswamy was popular but not on par with his father and that the party therefore had to rethink strategies and social alliances.

Before this Assembly polls, JD(S) lost sitting MLAs like Shivalinge Gowda from Arsikere (Hassan district), SR Srinivas from Gubbi (Tumakuru) to Congress, among other lawmakers.