JD(S) goes from frying pan to fire

The decision of the JD(S) to go ahead with a pre-poll alliance with the BJP for the Lok Sabha elections of 2024 may prove to be a misstep that worsens the party’s existential crisis.

BJP bigwig BS Yediyurappa on Tuesday asserted that the regional outfit and the saffron party would “fight together”. The JD(S) took the decision in the aftermath of the May 10 Assembly elections in which they were reduced to 19 seats and a paltry 13.3 per cent vote share.

One of the key takeaways from the polls was that they lost a significant number of Muslim voters in their stronghold of the Old Mysuru region as the community sided with the Congress. This convinced the regional outfit to plan for a future without Muslim support.

However, how wise is it of JD(S) to think that it will survive this crisis by further alienating one of its support bases?

It is a 180 degree turn because mere months ago, JD(S) had been planning to regain the Muslim vote in Old Mysuru, believing it to be their road to redemption before the polls.

The party concluded that it suffered a couple of setbacks among Muslims in the past two decades. Their poll strategists held that JD(S) legislature party leader HD Kumaraswamy quitting the Dharam Singh-led coalition government in 2005 and supporting the BJP for his maiden CM term had been a red rag to its Muslim voters.

The other instance had been Congress bigwig Rahul Gandhi coming down to former PM HD Devegowda’s home turf Hassan in March 2018 and declaring that JD(S) was the BJP’s B-team which had caused many Muslims to go over to the Grand Old Party.

The result was that the regional outfit lost by a margin of anywhere between 200 to 3,000 votes in 10 seats. Analysis by party strategists found that the waning support from Muslims had cost them dear. Kumaraswamy and co tried to make amends in a number of ways: making CM Ibrahim the JD(S) state president and asking Muslims to engage in “smart voting” backing JD(S) candidates where they are strong and Congress contenders in other places, for instance.

In their manifesto, they promised five per cent budgetary allocations to religious minorities who account for about 20 per cent of the population. The party also gave 23 tickets to Muslims, making it 11 per cent of their 211 candidates, which is close to their population percentage.

Congress is also to blame because they were more worried about decimating the JD(S) than ensuring Opposition unity.

Kumaraswamy in contrast had been forthcoming and had advised party workers to ensure Congress victories where the regional outfit didn’t stand a chance in the recent polls.

The question to be asked is how will JD(S) compensate for potentially losing even more Muslim votes because of their overt BJP tie-up? Moreover, voters favour national parties in the Lok Sabha polls and may ensure the regional party goes from the frying pan to the fire.