Will JD(S) increase its vote share if it ties up with BJP?

Umar Sharieef |NT

Bengaluru: The political fuss in Karnataka reached a different level on Tuesday as the former Chief Minister and one of the most prominent leaders of the BJP, B S Yediyurappa hinted about allying with the JD(S) in the state for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

HD Kumaraswamy, the leader of the JD(S) and also a former chief minister said anything might happen.

While the developments assume significance as both parties in the state continue to fight the newly elected Congress government, it also raises a question of whether the JD(S) could increase its vote share by joining hands with the BJP amid the backdrop of its strong fight against the Congress.

The JD(S)’s vote share was 13% in the 2009 election where it won three seats and it reduced to 11% in 2014 winning just two seats.

However, the Congress had won nine seats with 40%. Similarly, the party’s vote share saw a dip in the assembly elections as well.

The party’s best performance was in 2004, where it won 58 seats with 20.8%. In 2018, it won 37 seats with 18.3% of the votes and the image of the party hit a new low in 2023 with securing a mere 11% of votes.

Political analysts attribute this to the loss of the party’s image at the grass root level. However, the party continues to remain strong in Hassan, Mandya, and the old Mysuru region. But, Hassan and Mandya have always been the battleground for the JD(S) and Congress.

Sources from the JD(S) say the party would l i k e l y d e m a n d more than five seats if the alliance is a done deal.

“The JD(S) cannot reclaim what it lost and the alliance would be a move to keep the votes from not being divided”, said Muzaffar Assadi, a senior political commentator. He also added that the JD(S) can further not depend on the votes of Muslims and Vokkaligas as they back the Congress party. “Mysuru is for the BJP and only in Hassan can the JD(S) make a dif ference. In Tumakuru it is 50-50”, he told News Trail.

The BJP is also likely to back Sumalatha Ambareesh and field her in the Mandya seat, which will further hamper the JD(S) bastion.

With BJP retaining its stronghold seats as Uttara Kannada, Dakshina Kannada, Udupi, Chikkamagaluru, Dharwad, and Shimoga, experts believe that JD(S) cannot bounce back and the alliance happening would possibly be because the opposition front does not want the party with them.