INDIA at Mumbai: Unity the key

The national opposition which banded together under the acronym INDIA (The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) will be holding its third conclave in Mumbai on August 31-September 1.

Having taken a positive lead in terms of coining an acronym that lends it a certain advantage across the nation due to its nomenclature, the 26-party alliance is all likely to draw a few more participants this time.

Given the Narendra Modi-led Central dispensation’s extremely maladroit and inept handling of the ethnic violence in Manipur, it will not be surprising if tiny political outfits, currently propping up state governments in several North-eastern states, will be willing to switch their allegiance and affiliation to the new combine.

But the Mumbai conclave would be watched for the strategy the opposition coalition INDIA would be taking up to coalesce the divergent groups that have come together with the foundational objective of dislodging the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic (NDA) at the Centre in the 2024 general elections.

The coalition can scarcely postpone the dynamics that would impart it the contours of an effective national alternative overcoming schism, fault lines and coarser ends within against the Bharatiya Janata Party.

As of now, INDIA is a combination of motley political groups with loyalties to caste, community, dynastic and regional identities.

It is not yet certain if INDIA has any unanimity over the Indian National Congress (INC) being the main fulcrum around which these parties would and could hinge.

The INC despite being in power only in Karnataka, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh, has both, sizeable cross country presence and ideological appeal.

It is a robust opposition in Kerala, Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Though it has considerably weakened organizationally over the years, it is a potent rival for the BJP in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Assam.

It is part of the ruling DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu and JMM-led alliance in Jharkhand. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) would have no issues if it joins it in West Bengal against the BJP.

But it would happen only if it severs its ties with the Communist Party Marxist (CPM). One does not perceive any threat to its presence in the Maha Vikas Aghadi in Maharashtra.

Similarly, the Janata Dal United and Rashtriya Janata Dal alliance would be too keen to keep company with it in Bihar. It however faces main challenge in Uttar Pradesh, the state with largest number of seats in the Lok Sabha.

The Samajwadi Party is still not willing to allow the INC a share of seats beyond a token presence. Emboldened by the landslide victory in Punjab last year, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab is in no mood to concede any place for an ally.

This dims prospects of any healthy collaboration between it and the INC in Delhi and Punjab. In two key Telugu states—Andhra Pradesh and Telengana—both the ruling YSRCP and the BRS see it a potent challenger and have kept themselves out of the INDIA mainly owing to dominant presence of INC in its making.

This being the larger picture obtaining nationally, it remains to be seen how the INDIA components work out a strategy to put up a united face before the electorate.

No definitive signals are yet available from the vast tapestry of the allies that propose to challenge the BJP juggernaut.