Pak’s Kashmir policy: Has it run into a brick wall?

While military action against India would be a geopolitical disaster for Pakistan, that hasn’t stopped the country before. Pakistan has a history of undertaking risky military operations with almost no chance of success, like during the 1965 India-Pakistan War and Kargil War. It has also consistently employed terrorism as a strategy to advance its political interests.

Anuj Raina

In an unexpected development on February 25, India and Pakistan announced their recommitment to a ceasefire along the Line of Control and other disputed sections of the border between the arch-rivals. The announcement, which came amid progress in military disengagement between Chinese and Indian forces in eastern Ladakh and as U.S. President Joe Biden settles into office, had surprised many analysts and observers.

To everyone’s astonishment, the ceasefire has actually held up so far – the guns have fallen silent along the Line of Control. Although Pakistan-backed mujahideen continue their infiltration attempts, their efforts are far less successful due to the lack of covering fire by the Pakistan Army.

The question that begs to be asked is: Will this ceasefire hold indefinitely, and herald the start of a new cold peace in Kashmir?

Don’t bet on it.

Pakistanis often call Kashmir their “jugular vein.” The implication is that reclaiming the part of the region now administered by India is key to Pakistan’s survival. That objective got harder in August 2019, when India rescinded Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status. The move caught Pakistan off guard, made its military look weak, and turned its goal of annexing territory that has never formed part of its homeland even more distant.

As things stand, Pakistan is stuck in a cul de sac as it tries to resolve the Kashmir dispute with India, which dates back more than 70 years. The country has fought three wars for Kashmir, is a signatory to UN Security Council resolutions on holding a plebiscite in the region, and has signed multiple agreements with India. It has tried supporting militant outfits in the valley, sent proxies from its territory and weaponised religion and nationalism to kill the Indian presence there by a thousand cuts but to no avail.

What is most shocking for Pakistan is the response of the international community. No country in the world has protested against Delhi’s move and no one has sided with Pakistan, except those who put out sympathetic statements on behalf of Turkey, Iran, and China.

The Chinese response, soon after Delhi’s move, advised both India and Pakistan to refrain from further escalation and protested only on the declaration of Ladakh as a union territory as it affected “Chinese national sovereignty.” Still, advocates of old policies keep suggesting the same old tested and failed recipes wrapped in new packaging. Insanity in perpetuity seems to be the order of the day. Einstein’s saying “insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results” doesn’t seem to impress these advocates.

How has Pakistan responded to India annulling Kashmir’s special status? And how will Pakistan try to advance its position in Kashmir going forward?

The Kashmir obsession

Pakistan’s obsession of searching for a ‘strategic depth’ across the Durand Line in Afghanistan and a ‘Muslim Space’ in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir has proved to be a devastating policy for the country in pursuit of which its military-intelligence establishment implanted the seeds of Islamism, extremism and state-sponsored terrorism on both sides of their borders.

This strategic overstretch, though driven by a strong military sense of geo-politics among its largely military rulers, is embedded in the country’s unrealistic yearnings, out of place perceptions and false grievances. The army outsourced its ill-conceived strategy to jihadi organisations and religious institutions and allowed local militias, terrorist groups, guerrilla armies and other non-state actors to emerge in different parts of the country who afterwards claim political and religious authority. Rawalpindi (Pakistan Army headquarters) supported these terrorists as a cheap way to keep India and Afghanistan off balance.

But over the years, they have metamorphosed into a menace and the more powerful terrorist groups—which are also the more radical ones—have outgrown their handlers; fatally weakening the political institutions, declining the role of the state and creating monsters that threaten to devour Pakistani society. In the process, the failure of the state apparatus is creating a culture of impunity and ultimately leading to the breakdown of the rule of law in the country. Clearly, on-going fragility app