The best Trump can do: Be fair

While some of the foreign policy propositions of the 47th United States’ President Donald Trump could be just part of the bluster that he enjoys, US foreign policy awaits some major transformation. One could count Canada’s integration as the 51st state as beyond realization. But one may have to watch with trepidation how things progress on issues such as takeover of Panama Canal and renaming of the Gulf of Mexico as ‘the Gulf of America’. Trump eyes Greenland, the world’s largest island too. He has described the ownership and control of Greenland an absolute necessity” for “purpose of national security”.

It carries an element of threat. Greenland, currently part of Denmark, is truly vulnerable to Trump’s design as the is majority of Greenlanders are unhappy with Denmark and the island, with very little population but vast resources, will be vulnerable to coercion. His transactional approach would manifest itself better while dealing with NATO. He views it as ‘too dependent’ on the United States and would expect return or reimbursement of what the US has to shell out for ensuring security of members of the European Union. No wonder Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is coming under pressure to enter a bargain with the Russians considering that Trump is favourably disposed towards Russian President Vladimir Putin.

As for Panama Canal, the ownership and control of which he wants to return to the Americans, this is fraught with risks. The Canal is a major artery between east and west as well as the major waterway for the ships linking Atlantic and Pacific coasts of the US. It brings $5 billion of annual revenue to Panama. Panamanian President Mr. Mulino has rejected any negotiation over the Canal but expressed desire to deepen commercial and diplomatic links with the United States and to move away from China with whom Panama had upgraded ties in recent years.

Mexico is all likely to bear the brunt of Trump’s priorities. Trump views Mexico as the major source of illegal migrants, drugs and Chinese goods. Renaming Gulf of Mexico is only a minor irritant. Mexico has already initiated measures to “placate” Trump. On January 13, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said it has begun reducing its dependence on inputs from China. North or South, Trump does not seem keen to prioritise building reliable ties and partnership with neighbours. Trump is known for his scant regard for international law, multilateralism, promotion of democracy elsewhere and compliance with international norms. He abhors the role of the United Nations. Benefit of hindsight reveals that these postulates were practiced even by Democrat President Joe Biden.

The 15-month Hamas-Israel conflict is evidence enough that the US was complicitous in Israel’s refusal to comply with international law to stop its genocidal war in Gaza against Palestinians. Furthermore, the US frowned at the International Criminal Court (ICC) which issued an arrest warrant on Nov. 11, 2024 against Benjamin Netanyahu and his former minister Yoah Gallant. The Trump administration will have an added reason to continue these policies. But transactional ties have their own limit. Israel is an exception. Dollars and arms to Israel flow incessantly, given the overwhelming clout of the Jewish and Zionist lobby in the US. Trump’s real estate interests via his son-in law Jared Kushner would further keep him from rectifying the traditional tilt towards Israel.

Kushner’s business interests are intricately intertwined with Israeli firms like Steinmetz Group. Moreover, Trump’s political fortunes owe a great deal to pro-Israeli billionaires like Miriam Adelson, Sheldon Adelson and Elon Musk. It is futile to expect fairness in the US Mid-east foreign policy as of now. As for India, the deportations of illegal migrants— 7.5 lakh of them-should be the major point of concern what with Trump’s close ally Elon Musk having been instrumental in watering down his stance on H1B visa.