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English daily published in Bengaluru & Doha
Bihar polls no easy ride to power for Nitish
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Elections for the 245-member Bihar Assembly have been announced by the Elections Commission of India. The two-phase polling will be held on November 6 and 11 for 121 and 122 constituencies respectively. Stakes are especially high for the Janata Dal United-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) headed by chief minister Nitish Kumar who has managed to be at the helm for the last 20 years by shifting allegiances between the NDA and the Mahagatbandhan (MGB) led by Mr. Tejashwi Yadav, leader of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Over the last two decades, Nitish has stuck to the saddle of power through opportunistic twists and turns. The major imponderable this time is whether the BJP would be amenable to the idea of him remaining in the hot seat if NDA secures the absolute majority, although it has still not backed out from declaring him the CM face of the combine. Nitish was able to outmanoeuvre both the RJD and the BJP, twice each during the last two decades. But he is not the same old politician with quick wit. Fatigued and often lost, he lacks the verve to snatch the trophy in case the hustings favour the block he leads. However, Nitish’s record at governance is fair what with the promise of Bijli, paani aur sadak (power, water and roads) having been delivered in good measure. |
But Nitish is far from being written off. His political acumen and strength rests on a carefully cultivated votebank that comprises Kurmi-Koeri communities (7%) which has taken under its fold the Hindu Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs at 26%), Mahadalits and womenfolk during his reign. His welfarism plank has benefitted these communities. Besides, his stainless personal image adds the icing to the cake. His welfare purse has unleashed cash rewards for all conceivable sections from anganwadi workers to senior citizens and unemployed youth to scavengers.
It remains to be seen if these would compensate for the declining aura of ersatz and gusto that had steadied his base and political fortunes in the first two tenures. Declining numbers of legislature seats from 115 in 2010 to 43 in 2020 stare in his face. The BJP is helplessly dependent on Nitish’s hold over the large votebank which would slip away through its fingers at the mere hint of him not being the CM choice. The BJP having no leader even half as tall in comparison to Nitish is faced with the indispensability of having him at the front.
The NDA has a formidable rival in Tejashwi Yadav-led RJD-Congress combine. With Lalu-Rabri reign’s (1989-2005) misgovernance now a forgotten memory, Yadav presents a fresh face, who has led the party with grit in the assembly during the last three elections. He is facing tough bargaining for seats from the Indian National Congress which is freshly recharged with Rahul-led Vote Adhikar rally reviving the party’s dormant votebase. Tejashwi is topping the chart for CM’s choice in opinion survey with 35% voting for him against Nitish’s 16% and Prashant Kishor of Jan Suraj Party at 23%.
Tejashwi has made padhai, kamai, sinchai, dawai (education, employment, irrigation and health) as the major plank to woo the voters. Kishor is likely to be the major disruptor with a fresh face and meticulous campaign strategy. But gains are still uncertain as his social base has not yet crystallised, a major deficiency in a caste-polarised states like Bihar. But it will be the Election Commission of India whose integrity would be on test in Bihar which has seen nearly 65 lakh voters struck off the electoral rolls. With controversies surrounding the Special Intensive Revision (SIR), the Commission’s non-partisanship would be under scrutiny.
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