Red dragon eyes India’s neck

Recently, thousands in Bangladesh’s Chattogram held a massive rally demanding the implementation of the China-backed Teesta River Master Plan. The plan involving Beijing, amid stalled water-sharing talks with India, could pose strategic risks for New Delhi due to its proximity to the sensitive Siliguri Corridor, connecting the rest of northeastern India with West Bengal.

This comes in the backdrop of existing tensions with Pakistan over the freezing of the IWT in the wake of the Pahalgam attack. The Teesta Master Plan, backed by China, is being seen in Bangladesh as a workaround to the long stalled Teesta water-sharing deal with India. The plan could transform northern Bangladesh by boosting agriculture, creating jobs, and driving national growth.

Meanwhile, New Delhi views the plan and the protests with concern, especially due to its proximity to the strategic Chicken’s Neck and the potential Chinese presence near the sensitive Siliguri Corridor, which is a 20-kilometre land route connecting the northeastern states to the rest of India.

With the 1996 Ganga Water Sharing Treaty nearing its expiry in 2026, the urgency to implement the unilateral plan near the strategic Chicken’s Neck with a third party (China), and the intense push for the plan’s implementation, raises concerns of being detrimental to India’s water security and regional cooperation.

Bangladesh alleges that during the lean season, when water levels are low, India restricts the flow of Teesta River water, causing severe shortages for agriculture and daily use. During the monsoon season, Bangladesh faces flooding and has demanded better management and equitable sharing to ensure sufficient water supply throughout the year.

However, a deal has not been reached yet between the two riparian states. In March, after Yunus met Chinese President Xi Jinping, the joint statement issued said Bangladesh welcomed Chinese companies to participate in the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project (TRCMRP).

India, particularly West Bengal, has raised concerns over water availability during dry seasons, fearing that sharing more water could harm its own farmers. Despite several rounds of negotiations since the 1990s, a final agreement has remained elusive due to political sensitivities and the Bengal government’s repeated opposition in India.

The Teesta Master Plan, combined with reports of a potential Chinese presence at the Lalmonirhat airbase nearby, has raised serious strategic concerns for India. The activation of the Lalmonirhat airbase, a WWII-era airbase close to Siliguri in West Bengal, would enhance China’s ability to conduct aerial surveillance and reconnaissance on Indian military installations, troop movements, and critical infrastructure. No wonder, New Delhi has reasons to be worried.