Can Kerala Left recover from this jolt?

Ahead of the Assembly polls in Kerala, due in April-May next year, the drubbing the Left Democratic Front (LDF) suffered in the recent local body polls has come as a severe shock for Left adherents who were expecting a better showing. The indications are more than ominous; despite brave-faced CPI(M) leaders asserting that this poor show would not impact the party performance in the Assembly polls, it is clear that the Left may lose its only bastion in the country after being wiped out from West Bengal and Tripura.

There could be several reasons for this: for one, other than the 80-year-old Pinarayi Vijayan, who is nearing the end of his long political career, the Left and more so the CPM has no leader of repute who can take on the array of senior Congress leaders. The Congress has many; VD Satishan, the Leader of Opposition, Ramesh Chennithala, K Muralidharan not to mention KC Venugopal, who have all enough experience to lead the state. On the other hand in the CPI(M), no leader has reached anywhere near the eminence of Vijayan, who  has been holding the Left fort against the Congress and the BJP-led NDA.

The CPM has been carefully avoiding the question of ‘who after Vijayan’, quite aware that it does not have senior stalwarts in the same league and maybe because it could even open a Pandora’s box. The debilitating loss has happened despite the Left front initiating a series of welfare measures including hiking pensions; the sensational Sabarimala gold loss in which a CPM leader was also allegedly involved and anti-incumbency, have created the grounds for a blow which has people wondering if this is the last gasp before the Left is eclipsed by the Congress and NDA.

The good show put up by the BJP-led NDA has creased the foreheads of Left loyalists with the saffronists seizing the prestigious Thiruvananthapuram Corporation and also coming to power in 2 municipalities and 26 village panchayats. Compared to the show put up by the Congress-led UDF, which won four corporations and 54 municipalities, this is no match but yet, it goes to show the rising graph of the BJP which no doubt is coming a the cost of the Left front.

The Leftists have been left with just one corporations, 28 municipalities and seven district panchayats with its leaders asserting that they will sit down and analyse the reasons for the defeat so that a course correction can be done. With just 4-5 months left for the Assembly polls, one wonders if the Left can recover from this body blow even if a massive overhaul is carried out. For the INDIA bloc, the Congress-led UDF coming to power at the cost of the Left, hardly makes any difference as both parties are part of the Opposition alliance but the rise of the BJP is obviously a cause of concern.

In a state where the BJP has not been able to win a single Assembly seat in recent years and had to be content with one parliament seat (Suresh Gopi in Thrissur), it is still too early to predict a phenomenal rise of the saffron bloc. But if the Left is unable to do an honest analysis of the reasons for its defeat, there are enough indications of the next Assembly poll turning out to be its waterloo.