Not Machado, Rodriguez is Trump’s pick for Venezuela

Donald Trump’s recognition of Delcy Rodríguez as the next Venezuelan President, contradicts the US position on the Maduro regime. While regime change was something the Trump administration was mulling for some time, the abduction of Maduro, his subsequent trial in the US even while retaining Maduro loyalists to run Venezuela, lacks clarity and hides the real intent. Most surprising is the exclusion of María Corina Machado, the Nobel Laureate.

In his speech to the nation, Trump also made no mention of Edmundo González, the retired diplomat who became Machado’s political surrogate after she was barred from running, and is believed to have actually won the 2024 elections. Trump is perhaps wary of the fact that despite popular support, Machado is not universally liked. Some Venezuelans distrust her as a result of thinly veiled calls for  foreign military intervention to unseat Maduro in the past.

Others are suspicious of her ties with radical right-wing politicians  and her support for Trump’s widely discredited claim that a Venezuelan gang, Tren de Aragua  launched an invasion of the US. Weeks earlier, U.S. officials had already settled on an acceptable candidate to replace Mr Maduro, at least for the time being; Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who had impressed Trump officials with her management of Venezuela’s crucial oil industry.

Trump had never warmed up to Machado, who had organized a winning presidential campaign in 2024, earning her the Nobel Peace Prize this year. Since Trump’s re-election, Machado has gone out of her way to please him, calling him a champion of freedom, mimicking his talking points on election fraud in the United States and even dedicating her Peace Prize to him.

Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s interim leader with credentials of an economic trouble-shooter , had orchestrated the country’s shift from corrupt socialism to similarly corrupt laissez-faire capitalism.With Maduro’s inner circle still seemingly in power in Venezuela, US officials may have considered that the smoothest transition would be provided by having someone from the existing government take over. 

The fact that Rodríguez was seen surrounded by some of the most powerful men in Maduro’s inner circle hours after the president had been arrested and flown out of the country seems to suggest that she has won their backing, too. Talk of fresh elections will no doubt disappoint not only María Corina Machado and Edmundo González but also many Venezuelans who voted for them and who have been adamant that they want to see those votes honoured.

In the short term, therefore, Venezuela looks likely to be governed by Delcy Rodríguez and Maduro’s inner circle , as long as they meet the Trump administration’s expectations. US relationship with Rodríguez’s interim government will be based on her ability to play by their rules,  with US  reserving the right to take additional military action if she fails to respect America’s interests.