‘Maha win’ no doubt but real test lies ahead

There is no doubt that the resounding win the BJP-Shinde Sena scored in the Maharashtra civic polls including seizing control of the prestigious Mumbai civic body, is a big blow for opposition hopes of reining in the saffron juggernaut. Disunity among partners of the Maha Vikas Aghadi which made the Congress party contest on its own, and a series of conflicting statements ahead of the prestigious poll, sounded the death knell for the Opposition front.

For the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena which had ruled the roost in Mumbai for decades and owes much of its success to the support it received from the Mumbaikar, this is a bitter pill. But then, there are some who are reading too much into the Mumbai results and giving it a national perspective while writing the obituary for Opposition hopes. They contend that coming after the saffronist victory in Bihar, this sweep is enough indication that the Opposition is on the retreat and cannot take on the onslaught of the Modi-Shah combine.

They forget the fact that the real test of electoral relevance rests in parliamentary and Assembly polls; and there are quite a few lined up this year in politically significant states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala besides Assam and Puducherry. These are states where titans of the Opposition including MK Stalin in Tamil Nadu, Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and Pinarayi Vijayan in Kerala have been giving nightmares to the local BJP leadership despite herculean efforts to carve out a niche.

With their strong secular credentials and the constant scoffing at saffronist attempts to create a communal divide and profit in elections, people of these states have staved off the BJP challenge again and again. On Sunday, Prime Minister Modi reiterated his oft-repeated charge that Mamata Banerjee’s government was protecting infiltrators and promoting ‘jungle raj’ and this needed to end in Bengal. Whether such statements against Didi will reap the necessary political dividends remains to be seen considering the BJP’s dismal record in past attempts to target the West Bengal CM.

AS for Tamil Nadu, even if parties like the TVK led by actor Vijay and the AIADMK manage to make a dent in the DMK fortress, it is unlikely to help the BJP much considering the strong pro-Dravidian sentiment in the southern state and its dislike for Hindu imposition. Kerala may swing the Congress or Left way but the BJP is still a long, long way from coming anywhere near power in God’s Own Country. Civic polls no doubt are important but to assume that they reflect political preferences of the country’s electorate at large would be a bit too far-fetched.