Whither Bangladesh Poll

A lot of eyes in India will remain riveted this week on the outcome of elections in Bangladesh which is going to elect its 350-member Jatiya Sangsad (National Parliament) on Thursday (February 12). The nation will witness a largely bi-polar contest between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and right wing Jamaate Islami which has gathered a 12-party alliance. Exclusion of Awami League from the fray however raises a major question mark on the elections being ‘free and fair’. 

The party which ruled the nation for the major part since its independence from  Pakistan rule in 1971, still retains support of a vast section of people although it was considerably weakened after the government of former Prime Minister Hasina Wazed launched a brutal crackdown against the popular uprising against her authoritarian rule. Polling will be held for 300 seats while candidates for 50 reserved seats for women will be allocated on the basis of proportional representation.

Indications so far available point to a heavy turnout as a vast youth segment of people is desperately looking for a change in the national polity with focus on employment, end of corruption and a turn away from dynastic politics, a prominent feature marking both—Awami League and the BNP—leading parties during the 55-year trajectory of the nation. Surveys predict the turnout to be around 90%. Of the 18-37 year group of electors, 63% would be voting for the first time.

 Who among the present contenders would be the choice for people who have traditionally voted for the Awami League is yet another major poser. According to surveys by independent agency Communication and Research Foundation (CRF), of those who voted for Awami League in the past, 48% would vote for BNP, around 30% would favour Jamaate Islami while 6.7% have indicated the National Citizens Party (NCP), a students’ party rising from the August 2024 uprising, to be their favourite. However, 34% of those voting for the first time have indicated Jamaat to be their choice, followed by 27% who favour the BNP, 17% for the NCP. Another 17% fall under the undecided category.

 Tariq Rehman, son of former BNP supremo Khaleda Zia, who landed in Dhaka in December 2025, from his exile in London is pulling large crowds. Jamaate Islami led by Dr. Shafiqur Rahman, though free from the stigma of corruption, suffers from the disadvantage of being a collaborator with the Pakistan Army during the nation’s freedom struggle. The Party has promised cordial ties with neighbours, but has not spelled its stance with regard to ties with Pakistan.The outcome will be keenly awaited in Delhi which had sent external affairs minister S. Jaishankar to attend the funeral of Khaleda Zia and used the opportunity to build a rapport with the party, a front-runner in the fray.