Punjab has to choose its own politics

With the state heading to polls next month, the trends that may influence voters need a closer inspection.

Anita Tagore

Punjab is heading for a triangular contest for power. The Congress, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are the axiological contenders, demonstrating their electoral promises and blueprints for development of the state.

Historically, the adept tradition in Punjab has been forging coalitions between different political parties with competing support base. The intersecting axes of caste, class, religion, language and nation have been the factors that have shaped the political destiny of Punjab.

Punjab is fundamentally churning at this moment. The reasons are many.

The most important reason is the gathered strength of farmers from Punjab who led a robust peasant protest that pressured the Union government to repeal the three farm laws.The protest saw political parties shouldering support but none with a direct confrontationist stance against the BJP. Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) MP Harsimrat Kaur Badal – who resigned from the Union Cabinet in protest against the farm laws, bringing the BJPSAD alliance to a standstill – was an exception.

The leap of the farmers from mobilisational to institutional practice of politics by floating a political front, Samyukt Samaj Morcha (SSM), shows their rejection of any dependence on political benevolence. However, consolidation of farmer-voters may be difficult as the Samyukt Kisan Morcha has disowned any allegiance to the political front. The winnability of SSM candidates will be influenced by its political goals.

The second churning is the political space that has been created for Dalit leadership.

The Congress was forced by the deep-rooted factionalism in the party, Amarinder Singh’s exit as CM and the anti-incumbency wave to restructure its government four months before the impending assembly elections.

The anti-incumbency influx saw the raging debate over the failure of the Congress regime to initiate a good governance model for Punjab. One example was in its inability to generate optimum revenue that can settle the projected debt burden of at least Rs. 2.82 lakh crore by the time its five-year term comes to an end in March.

The counter-balance to the Congress’s non-performance discourse was its masterstroke on caste dynamics. The elevation of Charanjit Singh Channi, who is from a Dalit community, as the CM can be read not only as powerful symbolism but also a critical departure towards exceptionalism in Indian politics. The Congress has juxtaposed Channi’s Dalit Sikh image with AAP’s forte of the celebrated aam aadmi. While the decision could have primarily been influenced by electoral considerations, it is also the Congress’s strategy to appeal to Dalit voters. The demographic significance of Dalits in the state is an unexplored political opportunity for power re-configuration. Though Dalits constitute 32% of Punjab’s population, it is the Jat Sikhs – who constitute 25% of the population – who have traditionally monopolised state power. Even if for tokenism, the Congress did what no one else could.

Chief Minister Channi has brought to the forefront questions about the political agency of Dalits in Punjab to challenge the dominance of the Jat Sikhs’ political leadership. Hypothetically, the aggregation of Dalit votes in favour of a Dalit chief minister may be a game-changer in elections.

The third moment of churning is the ascendancy of AAP in Punjab politics after its innings as the opposition in the state assembly. Its non-elitist approach with door-to-door campaign by political bigwigs of the party has been resonating egalitarian populism. It has escalated its gains from its formidable presence in the backward pockets of the Malwa region. The impressive surge of AAP in Chandigarh municipal polls is a pointer.

Development politics blended with politicisation of caste can become double engines for ushering in a new political culture in Punjab. The question is whether the undercurrent of churning will take the form of clear verdict or destabilise politics. The future of Punjab depends on the politics it chooses for itself.

(Anita Tagore is associate professor of Political Science at Kalindi College, University of Delhi. This article first appeared in The Wire)