Will Didi succumb to Shinde model?

The rebellion within the TMC in West Bengal has taken a decisive turn as 58 dissident MLAs backed expelled legislator Ritabrata Banerjee as the leader of the legislature party and Assembly Speaker Rathindra Bose recognised the rebel faction as the official principal opposition in the House. Similar to the split in the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, the ‘Eknath Shinde model’ is now being replicated in Bengal. In the game she thought she had mastered, Mamata Banerjee has been outplayed by the BJP.

The dramatic development, vertically splitting the Trinamool legislative party into two, is uncannily similar to the BJP’s successful ‘Maharashtra model’ where a split in the Shiv Sena in 2022 by a faction led by Eknath Shinde broke away from the parent party and, with the support of the BJP, formed the government in the state with the new bloc claiming the status of the principal opposition. It also evokes memories of the split in the Nationalist Congress Party in 2023, when Ajit Pawar broke away from his uncle Sharad Pawar’s camp, armed with the support of a majority of legislators.

The subsequent legal and political battle culminated in the Election Commission recognising Ajit Pawar’s faction as the real NCP and awarding it the party’s name and symbol. However, two questions remain. First, Didi had earlier submitted the LoP, deputy leader and chief whip names to the Speaker.

Secondly, and very significantly, a CID probe into an alleged signature forgery case is underway, after Ritabrata Banerjee and Sandipan Saha, two rebel TMC MLAs, informed the Speaker on May 27 that no resolution regarding the selection of the LoP had been adopted at the party’s May 6 meeting, contrary to the claim made in the party’s official communication. The two MLAs alleged that the so-called May 6 resolution was manufactured and fabricated and stated that as many as 14 of the 70 signatures were in block letters.

Significantly, the rebels have stopped short of challenging Mamata Banerjee’s supremacy over the party. In the communication submitted to the Speaker, they described her as the chairperson of the TMC, while making it clear that they no longer accepted the authority of her nephew Abhishek Banerjee in deciding the affairs of the legislature party. Like Eknath Shinde, rebel leader Ritabrata Banerjee is relying on legislative arithmetic rather than organisational legitimacy.

For Mamata Banerjee, the immediate challenge is not merely retaining post of Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly, but preserving political authority over the legislature party, and over the AITMC party as a whole. However, with rebellion directed against her nephew’s political authority within the AITMC , what she needs is tackle this on priority.