State braces for El Niño, prepares mitigation

The World Meteorological Organization said last week in a statement that El Nino conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event. The forecast holds significance for India as it has already registered a rainfall deficit of about 40 percent in June, with central India worst affected, recording a deficit of 50.4 percent. Stronger El Nino conditions can spell disaster for India’s peak sowing period, as more than half of India’s kharif-cultivated area is entirely rain-fed.

Amid concerns over a weak monsoon, the central government has identified 315 districts as vulnerable, which includes 111 highly vulnerable districts. Karnataka figures amongst some of the most affected districts in India. In a mitigation move, the Karnataka government has released Rs 117 crore in advance to tackle drinking water shortages in rural areas caused by El Nino-induced rainfall deficits and monsoon deficit. Over 150 taluks spanning over 18 deficit-rainfall districts across Karnataka are experiencing severe drought-like conditions.

Major reservoirs have hit dead storage levels and sowing has dropped significantly in Kalaburagi, Raichur, and Yadgir, Belagavi, Chitradurga, Tumakuru, Kodagu, Hassan, Shivamogga, and Chikkamagaluru districts. Because of the depleted water levels in the Krishna Raja Sagar (KRS), Kabini, and Hemavathi rivers, the state is prioritizing drinking water and fodder security, with Rs 5 crore earmarked for affected districts. Karnataka is a power-surplus state on an annual basis.

The state has successfully transitioned into an energy-rich grid producing nearly half of its electricity from renewables and even sold surplus power worth ?423 crore to the national grid. However, post the El Niño-induced weak and delayed monsoon conditions, the state’s hydropower production has been severely impacted , as it has led to dangerously low reservoir levels across the state. Key reservoirs like Linganamakki are holding only a fraction of their total storage capacities.

State-wide, hydel reservoirs contained roughly 49.4 TMC of water in early July, compared to 133.7 TMC during the same period in the previous year. This has forced the state to map out contingency energy plans and increase reliance on thermal and alternative power sources. Faster implementation of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and Pumped Storage Projects to improve renewable energy integration and grid stability, are also on the government’s agenda.

Arguably, the state must prepare for rising electricity demand driven by data centres, Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure, and the expanding digital economy, with the El Nino conditions here to stay. With peak power demand expected to reach 38 GW by 2035 , the government is preparing a long-term expansion and financing roadmap while expediting smart meter installation, grid modernisation, transmission projects, and the expansion of EV charging infrastructure to support Karnataka’s growing energy needs.