One step back for two steps forward in a new direction?

By Sandeep Shastri

In keeping with his now well-known style, the Prime Minister sprung a surprise in his address to the nation, when he announced the repealing of the three farm laws. He promised that the Parliament session at the end of this month would undertake the process of withdrawal of the said laws. As a ‘master of the message’ and the ‘master of timing’, the PM chose Guru Nanak Jayanti for his announcement and preceded it with a detailed outlining of his commitment to the cause of farmers and his efforts in this regard. He conceded that there was a segment of the farming community he was not able to convince and was thus announcing the withdrawal.

The Prime Minister’s announcement has been the focus of discussions and the media is overflowing with analysis of the intent and implications of the move. This column would add its small contribution to the narrative.

One would like to see this move in three different ways. First, as an immediate electoral strategy, second as a wider political strategy and third as a long term policy strategy. While the three need to be clearly delineated there will be visible shades of overlap. Before going into the specifics, both the ‘message’ and ‘timing’ are critical to underscore.

The message:

The Prime Minister’s ‘message’ was very clear: he asserted that the majority of the farmers were happy with the laws; a segment of farmers is not yet convinced in spite of their (government’s) best efforts, of the utility of the laws; thus we withdraw the measures. In his first speech after the 2019 election victory he has added a new phrase to the ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas (With everyone, for everyone’s development) slogan – ‘Sabka Vishwas’ (Everyone’s Trust). One should not be surprised if in the coming days, this becomes the ‘nucleus of the message’. Second, there’s the timing. Everybody knew the Prime Minister would be addressing the nation but who could have seen this ‘high ticket’ announcement coming? It took both his opponents and supporters by surprise. The ‘surprise’ element has its own implications for leaving the critic unprepared and providing an element of excitement for the supporter.

Now, let’s look at the three substantive implications of the Prime Minister’s announcement. When seen through the prism of immediate electoral strategy, the Punjab and Uttar Pradesh elections are crucial assembly polls. The BJP would like to retain power in UP and also wrest Punjab from the Congress. In Uttar Pradesh, opinion polls indicate that while the BJP seems ahead, it is likely to lose votes and seats as compared to 2017. The farmers’ agitation has important ramifications in Western Uttar Pradesh. By repealing the farm laws, has an attempt been made to take the wind out of the Opposition’s sails?

There is no shadow of doubt that the Opposition will continue to focus on the agricultural policy of the government. It would be interesting to see how they calibrate their strategy in the light of the new development and how the different political players get their message across to the voters will be critical. Reports also indicate that in UP, the voter seems to have developed very strong views on the different political players, based on their local experiences. How will the recent developments impact the attitude of these voters? How parties pitch their electoral campaign could well be a ‘game changer’.

Building bridges with the Akalis

In Punjab, the BJP has paved the way for an alliance with Captain Amarinder Singh. Whether this will also lead to building bridges with the Akali Dal would be the key question. The main bone of contention between the BJP and the SAD, was the farm laws. Could the repeal pave the way for some rapprochement? The Congress, meanwhile, as the ruling party must get its house in order, strategize projecting its achievements while in power and stave off any anti-incumbency. Given the multiple engines in place to lead the Congress train, ‘building a narrative’ that can convince the electorate is the uphill task ahead. For AAP, a local face who can capture the imagination of the electorate and repose trust in the party’s capacities would need to be the strategy. Both Congress and AAP will need to rework their gameplan on the farm issue in the light of the PM’s announcement.

The second implication of Mr Modi’s announcement is the wider political strategy. In the latter half of its second term in power, the BJP-led NDA would like to re-define in the public mind the focus of its second term in power. The past has shown (both in the case of the Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh-led governments) that the