Sovereignty at stake

I ndia’s abstention from voting in favour of the United States and Albania sponsored resolution against Russia should not come as a surprise, though it will be viewed negatively by nations that cherish democracy and respect sovereignty and territorial integrity of independent nations. India, China and the United Arab Emirates were the three abstentions among the 15-member United Nations Security Council (UNSC). That the resolution would be vetoed by Russia was a foregone conclusion. Aside from whatever may be said about the fairness of India’s stand, it is not difficult to gauge that this was driven by its concern of realpolitik rather than the nation’s cherished ideals of respect for sovereignty. India was not willing to sacrifice the friendship of a superpower that stood by it through thick and thin.

It would be apt to term the Russian invasion of Ukraine as military aggression. Ever since the fall of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1991, Ukraine had maintained a neutral stance. Despite being a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), it did not join the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and had expressed its desire to join NATO in 2008. This was not palatable to the Russians and Ukraine should have maintained neutrality in its own strategic self-interest against a superpower breathing down its neck. It is now paying a huge price for its daredevilry.

The authoritarian streak in the current Russian dispensation presided by Vladimir Putin is too clear to be dismissed. And yet the West failed to go all the way to protect Ukraine. Its silence when Russians took the Crimean Peninsula out of Ukraine in 2014 sent out signals that only emboldened the Russians in their designs against the former Soviet state. It is amply clear that US and EU sanctions will not deter Russia from taking its ‘special military operations’ to its logical end of replacing the democratic dispensation in Kyiv with a vassal state. Europe is too dependent on Russian oil and gas to sustain its economy than Russia being in want of anything from the EU.

The frightening signals emanating from the NATO’s fiasco in Europe need to be heeded. If sovereign states are to be invaded with such ease, there will be no dearth of those setting covetous eyes on neighbours. The West’s refusal to stand by Ukraine is likely to encourage China, a superpower rising on the global horizons, to accomplish its ‘reunification’ of Taiwan. China’s abstention in the vote against Russia is more meaningful than India’s. No wonder if China is setting the stage for a similar help from the friendly superpower in the near future. Such ominous forebodings must never be ignored.