Will polls be a gamechanger?

The curtains will come down on Monday on the mini-general elections in five statesUttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur in which more than 18 crore people-one fifth of the total voter population in the country, are eligible to exercise their franchise. The excruciating wait for the results on March 10 has already begun.

The poll campaign was no less than intense with the Covid pandemic and curbs imposed by the Election Commission no deterrent in any manner. The battle for the 690 Assembly seats in total, will go down to the wire, particularly in Uttar Pradesh where a resurgent Samajwadi Party led by Akhilesh Yadav looks better placed now than in the past, to oust Yogi Adityanath from power.

Elsewhere in states like Punjab and Goa, the scenario looks pretty fluid. Punjab in particular is a pollsters’ nightmare and more so because of the fierce rivalry between state Congress chief Navjyot Singh Sidhu and CM Charanjit Channi. Will it make a section of Congress supporters back other partiesthe Aam Admi Party maybe which is making a renewed bid to grab power is anyone’s guess.

There are many who think the battle-scarred veteran of Punjab politics, Amarinder Singh will split the Congress vote and queer the pitch. Amarinder’s Punjab Lok Congress could make or wreck the prospects of other parties by winning a few thousand votes but it’s a long way from making a serious bid for power.

In Goa and Uttarakhand, the BJP is facing a spirited fight from the Opposition Congress with AAP and Trinamool Congress, new entrants to the Goa poll scene, likely to eat into the traditional votes of the national parties. A political potboiler could be in the making in Goa with a hung assembly looking all too likely.

The big fight is in UP where the verdict could have a significant impact on national politics. The irrepressible Yogi Adityanath is considered by his loyalists as a potential successor to PM Modi, though he has enough seniors in the party who would love to pull the rug from under his feet. Victory in UP even by a reduced margin, is sure to push Yogi to centrestage in national politics.

That brings up another issue: will the polls results be a pointer to the trends likely to emerge during the general elections in 2024? Or is it a bit too early to make predictions?

The opposition has enough big names who can challenge the BJP-leaders like Sharad Pawar, Mamata Banerjee, and K. Chandrasekhar Rao have already sounded the bugle against the NDA and its belated approach to crucial issues including price rise, the Ukraine evacuation crisis and the insecurity among minorities. A blow for the BJP in these polls will be an ideal launchpad for the opposition to secure a much needed edge over the saffronists who have hardly faced a challenge in recent years. But will that happen is the moot question.