The war and its aftermath: A lesson for the world

Girish Linganna

The ongoing war since February 24 is no longer confined to between Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine. The conflict has many dimensions, and there are many players, directly and indirectly. But it is having a cascading effect on several nations and their economies.

Even if we assume that Putin would stall the war or Ukraine would surrender politically to Putin at this juncture, what good would it do? Again, there are many angles for analysing the situation and the war’s impact. Putin will not cool down and his ambitions will not be satiated till he re-establishes a united Russia, and hence he will continue to be a bitter man. The heavily bombarded Ukraine has nothing to offer its citizens in terms of security, employment, or life. It would take decades to bring back the lost glory of Ukraine. This will be so even if Russia takes over Ukraine.

Ominous portents
The world, except China, doesn’t want Putin to have the last laugh. If he has the final say, it will be like the world letting an aggressor carry the reward. In a way, he may inspire China to further its designs on its neighbours. Putin should be made to compromise if future wars have to be avoided. There should be attempts to broker peace between the two sides through some give and take. The world leaders have so far failed to rein in Putin through economic sanctions. Ukraine, and its President Zelenskyy, have almost been left alone on the battlefield so far. The US and the EU must not leave him there as a clown.

War has its ominous portents in that it threatens to trigger an arms race among nations. Defence spendings by nations would go up around the globe thereby diverting funds from welfare and development. Ukraine is a weak country. So far it has valiantly resisted Russia, leading to skepticism if Russia would be able to overrun it totally. Ukrainians are fighting unmindful of the end. But how far will it be able to withstand the Russian onslaught?

The war revolves around Putin’s obduracy, though Russia is economically weak. It doesn’t figure in the top 10 richest countries in the world. It’s GDP of $1.7 trillion is less than India’s $2.7 trillion. With this sort of economy, how will Putin rebuild his country or Ukraine? Of course, he is drawing strength from the natural resources of his country. Considered a “gas station for the EU”, it holds the world’s largest natural gas reserves, the second largest coal reserves, and the eighth largest oil reserves.

High price of oil
In response to the West’s proposed boycott of Russian oil, in addition to other economic sanctions, Putin has threatened that he would turn off the gas pipeline to Europe. He says a barrel of crude would go up to $300 a barrel from the present $100. Rather than America, it is the EU that would be in deep trouble unless urgent contingency plans are drawn up. About 8% of US imports of oil and refined products are from Russia, while it was around 45% in the EU. So natural resources have turned into a weapon for Putin, the dictator. Getting rid of the fossil fuels of Russia is possible, but it can’t be done immediately.

Keeping channels open
If Putin stops the war, will he be able to overcome his prejudices or presumptions that the West would not work to further disintegrate Russia? No, definitely not. He will continue to believe that Ukraine is not a nation on its own and that the Ukrainians are with him. As long as the fear lurk in his mind, he will not trust countries around Russia.

Irredentism is an old idea which has had its days. It is out of vogue today. Today it is the latest technology that confers the superpower status on nations. Knowledge in the form of technology, R & D, and empowerment through infrastructure development are on the agenda of progress-oriented countries. War doesn’t figure on their agenda. America, Germany, China, and India, among other countries, are positioning themselves as powerful with their human wealth and technical power. But a poor country like Russia has invested its time, money, and men in the war.

It is not that Russia has no security concerns. But probably, Putin could have played an intelligent game rather than invading Ukraine. The West, through sanctions, has succeeded in slowing down Putin. However, more should be done to bring him to the table. The West shouldn’t be sending troops to Ukraine, as that would only infuriate Putin. Building economic pressure and keeping channels open for talks may yield the desired results.

(The writer is an entrepreneur who writes on defence issues)