For BJP, southern states the final frontier

New Delhi: Declining fortunes of the Congress, which even in its past bad runs retained solid presence in south India, weakening of traditionally strong regional parties and its continued national consolidation have given the BJP the hope that the next Lok Sabha election in 2024 can see it break new ground in the southern region similar to its show in West Bengal and Odisha in 2019.

The BJP top brass at the party's national executive in Hyderabad targeted south India, where barring Karnataka it won only four out of 101 seats of four states in 2019, as the region for its next round of growth. A few days later the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government picked four eminent persons from as many southern states as its choice of nominated Rajya Sabha MPs, leaving little to imagination about the politics behind this.

The BJP's back to back sweep of north and west India has powered its big win in the 2014 and 2019 polls, and the party has constantly tried to expand its footprint in east and south India to ensure that any drop in its tally in its strongholds does not mar its national ambition. It has broken new ground in eastern states like West Bengal and Odisha and swept the Northeast but the field beyond the Vindhyas has so far proved less fertile.

While Karnataka has remained a BJP stronghold, more so in Lok Sabha polls, the remaining four states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala and Tamil Nadu have been largely untouched by the saffron wave which rode on Modi's appeal to bring the party two back to back wins, a feat last achieved by the Congress in 1984.

Conditions for the BJP, its leaders believe, are more ripe than ever in the region, with traditionally strong parties like the TDP in Andhra Pradesh and the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu left weakened and struggling to mount a strong challenge to the government headed by the YSR Congress and the DMK respectively. This coupled with the Congress being not in a position to offer a national alternative has also opened new possibilities for the BJP, including in the Left-ruled Kerala where the presence of around 45 per cent minorities had made the state a particularly tough nut to crack for the party.

The BJP's fresh push in peninsular India comes after it appeared for close to two decades that its southern march had failed to rise beyond the borders of Karnataka where it first came to power in 2008. Southern India, which fares better than most Indian states on socio-economic indicators, has been less receptive to the BJP's welfarism model so far while the party's another plank of Hindutva has also not worked as effectively there as in other regions. In its more aggressive and ambitious avatar, the BJP has been building up its state presidents Bandi Sanjay Kumar and K Annamalai in Telangana and Tamil Nadu respectively to take on its rivals.

It let go of the TDP as an ally in Andhra Pradesh and has worked to build itself in Telangana with constant campaign against the ruling TRS. It helps that the BJP is now in a much more comfortable position in Parliament than it was when then PM A B Vajpayee depended on allies.

However, it will be a steep climb if the party has to make a serious mark in the region in 2024. All the four Lok Sabha seats in these four states it won in 2019 came from Telangana and its tally was zilch in Andhra, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Political observers believe that ruling regional parties in states like Tamil Nadu and Telangana have begun cleverly playing up the regional identity and accusing the BJP of pushing its hegemonic religious and language agenda in their bid to touch a chord with voters.

The decision to hold its national executive in Hyderabad followed by a big public meeting where its top brass was present with Modi being the key speaker indicated the BJP's all out efforts to unseat the TRS in the assembly elections scheduled for next year. The BJP's efforts to gain some foothold in Tamil Nadu politics dominated by Dravidian parties met partial success in the the local body polls and Annamalai has now claimed that his party would win 25 Lok Sabha seats in 2024.

The BJP hopes that nomination of music maestro Ilaiyarajaa as a Rajya Sabha MP will help it strike a chord with Tamil voters. The BJP's political push in Kerala had virtually stalled after it failed to win a single seat in the last assembly polls. It hopes the Rajya Sabha nomination of legendary athlete P T Usha will generate the political tailwind it needs to expand its footprint. Kerala's ruling CPI(M) and opposition Congress said attempts to make political gain through Usha's nomination will not work, even as they lauded the decision. – PTI