Strategic interdependence: India-Russia ties still viable?

By Lt Gen P R Shankar (Retd.)

The Strategic Partnership between India and Russia is one of timetested interdependence, based on mutual understanding, trust, and common interests. The 21st IndiaRussia Annual Summit between President Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi being held on December 6 in Delhi will strengthen this relationship. There will also be a 2 + 2 dialogue between the defence and foreign ministers of the countries just as it was with QUAD countries.

The roots of the current equation lie in the Indo–Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation of August 1971. That treaty was a significant deviation from India’s non alignment stance. The staunch military, diplomatic and political support from Soviet Russia enabled India to dismember Pakistan. It helped the USSR in getting India, a leader of the non-aligned block, on its side and caused a global tilt in its favour. Historically, this relationship has been one of strategic interdependence and not a one sided equation. Despite the fact that the USSR has collapsed, Russia, the successor state, has carried the mantle even as the strategic construct of the last century withered away.

Geostrategic alignments of this century are underpinned by the cause and effects of the dramatic collapse of the Twin Towers, meteoric rise of China, and unseemly US withdrawal from Afghanistan. In this period, old friends have become new enemies and old enemies are new friends. USA and India, have overcome their differences to enter a strategic partnership. Russia and China once, wary adversaries, are now partners, one step short of an alliance. The waning superpower USA is at loggerheads with the wannabe superpower China and used to be superpower Russia. Many more equations have changed with other countries in this multilateral multipolar universe. Amidst this changing kaleidoscope, two relationships have survived. The Sino – Pak vs Indian adversarial relationship which keeps getting worse. The Indo- Russian relationship which keeps reinventing itself like a relic. It needs better understanding.

The bulk of the weapon systems of the Indian Armed Forces have been of USSR/Russian origin. The majority of the IAF fleet is still MIGs, Ils, Sukhois and MIs. The Navy has a predominantly Russian lineage - aircraft carrier, nuclear submarine, missile boats, stealth frigates et al. The mechanised forces of the Indian Army have traditionally been Russian - T55, T72, T90 and BMP. A major factor in this is that Russia has always given to India, cutting edge weapon systems when others have denied them. One can go on. While efforts at ‘Atmanirbharta’ will eventually succeed, it has to be understood that once a weapon system is introduced into service, it stays put for at least three decades. For those three decades and beyond, there are day to day issues of spares, repairs, upgrades, life extensions, maintenance and so on. Hence interdependency builds up. India depends on Russia to maintain its defence capability. Russia depends upon India to shore up its flagging economy. While new Sino-Russian and Indo-US equations might look like five star menus, the Indo-Russian equation is the ‘daily dal roti and subzi’ variety. This interdependency has got a life extension with the acquisition of the S 400 air defence system by India.

Apart from the defence sector, India and Russia have a lot of common interests in energy exploration especially with the Arctic Circle opening up. They also share interests in space and nuclear research. Very importantly India and Russia need each other in stabilising Afghanistan. An unstable Afghanistan dominated by Pakistan is a problem for both. India and Russia also have a good equation with Myanmar. If both the nations put their shoulder together, a reasonable end state can be brought about in Myanmar. Very clearly, both countries cannot get away from each other in a hurry. The Indo Russian interdependence has a long way to go.

With time, Russia and India have entered into new strategic relationships with bigger powers – China and the US respectively based on their interests. Potentially it puts them at cross purposes with each other. However these new relationships are not stress tested. While much is made of the Indo -US equation and QUAD, it is a moot point if the US can be trusted fully. The way France was treated during the formation of AUKUS is a case in point. FONOPS in the IOR without grace, the US’ initial reaction to the second wave in India or its lecturing India on democratic values leaves much to be desired in a strategic partnership. Similarly, the Sino Russian equation, though apparently flourishing, is one of mutual convenience and at best an uneasy one. Hence, old friends, India and Russia are hedging their bets with their major partners. At the same time they are simultaneously the escape valve and brid