Will Himachal say ‘Jai Ram’ to Thakur?

On Thursday, the dust will settle on the campaign trail in Himachal Pradesh which votes for a new Assembly on November 12. The ruling BJP led by Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur, is batting for a second term in office after the saffronists swept to power in the state in 2017 winning 43 seats of the total 68 while the opposition Congress had to be content with 23.

What has queered the pitch particular for the Congress this time and left the 56 lakh voters in the state in a bit of a quandary is the entry of the Aam Admi Party(AAP) into the fray. Kejriwal and co are contesting all 68 seats and there are poll experts who aver that the party will eat into the Congress’ vote bank heavily, leaving the BJP at an advantage.

Or will they take away a slice of the saffron vote pie after directing all their ammo at the BJP in the run-up to the polls? What is also proving to be a major headache for both the Congress and BJP this time is the entry of too many rebels into the poll fray which could upset calculations and even the power equation in a state which has only 60 plus Assembly seats.

The gravity of the rebel factor can be gauged from the Congress allegation that PM Modi himself had tried to make a rebel BJP candidate withdraw from the fray There are reports that despite the best of efforts to pacify the rebels, as many as a dozen Congressmen and more than 20 rebels of the BJP are still in the contest trying their luck. Both parties have cracked the whip against the rebels but it remains to be seen if the disciplinary action will have any effect on their ability to turn spoilers for the official party candidates.

For the BJP, this is a state they would not like to slip out of their grasp by any chance for it is the home terrain of the party’s national president JP Nadda and also of the high-profile Union Minister Anurag Thakur, son of former CM Prem Kumar Dhumal. The party in its attempt to beat anti-incumbency, is citing the case of Uttar Pradesh where Yogi Adityanath swept back to power for a second term brushing aside the challenge from the Samajwadi Party.

And if it can happen in Lucknow, why not Shimla is the question saffron party supporters are posing. But the going is not as smooth as it seems for the ruling party because of a none too impressive performance by CM Thakur. This also explains why PM Modi has been making frequent trips to the hill state leading the charge against the opposition. For the BJP knows that if the winds of change start blowing strong in Shimla, it won’t be long before they create ripples in neighbouring states and even Delhi ahead of the 2024 parliament polls.

While the HP result may not be as ‘earth shattering’ as that of Gujarat, the PM’s home state which votes on December 1 and 5, it will definitely be a pointer to the churning in the mind of the voter, caught in a myriad web of price rise, pay cuts and joblessness in the aftermath of the pandemic. What could be a cause for optimism among Congressmen is the fact that the Grand Old Party and the BJP have been alternating in power since 1985. It could be the Congress’ poll of glory, who knows.