Guj poll: No winds of change yet

On December 1 and 5, when a good proportion of the 4.9 crore voters in Gujarat make the trip to the polling booths to decide their political destiny, what would be weighing most on their minds? Would they be considering viable alternatives after 27 years of uninterrupted BJP rule? Have the Aam Admi Party (AAP) and the Congress succeeded in making dents in the hitherto impregnable bastion of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah? Or will it be another saffron sweep against, despite all the hiccups and lackustre performance of the BJP governments in the state, led earlier by Vijay Rupani and now, Bhupendra Patel? This Gujarat election is significantly different from the earlier ones because of one important reason:

The AAP is a serious contestant now, emerging as the third force in a state where hitherto, no such alternative existed with polls battles inevitably fought between the Congress and the BJP or splinter factions of the two parties. For the first time, people are eyeing with much curiosity a party which had swept the Assembly polls in Delhi and Punjab and is pretty confident confident about making inroads in another northern state, Himachal Pradesh, where the votes have been cast and the results will be known on December 8.

That brings us to a vital question. Does the AAP have a vote bank of its own in a state which has witnessed bipolar politics till now? Or is it going to eat into the vote bank of the Congress leaving the Grand Old Party tottering far behind the saffronists in many constituencies? Most political analysts do not consider the AAP a potent enough force in this elections to come anywhere near the seat of power; Kejriwal and co may make an impact and garner a few thousand votes in each constituency but they may not be able to take away a substantial chunk of votes and win even a handful of seats to become a serious player in the race for power.

It is still Narendra Modi and his emotional appeal to the Gujarat’s heart which will determine the way the electorate swings and there are not many reasons to assume that the choice will be any different this time in the absence of any strong wave in favour of either the Congress or AAP. There is also the moot question of whether issues like the Morbi tragedy will have an impact on the electoral outcome.

In fact, many expected Morbi to emerge as an important campaign point when more than a hundred died in the bridge tragedy allegedly due to civic negligence, but the impact, claim analysts, will be minimal and restricted to a few seats in and around the tragedy site. Not that the BJP has much to show by way of governance. The performance of the ruling party has been lacklustre to say the least. The previous CM, Vijay Rupani had to vacate his seat because of his ineffectual performance which had sent the alarm bells ringing in the BJP.

It remains to be seen if Bhupendra Patel who replaced him has been able to present a better show but as most Gujaratis would put it, this is an election where Modi holds sway and it either a vote for or against him. So when the dust settles on the campaign trail in the state on December 29, there will be many who wish they could espy winds of change on the horizon but going by the indications emerging from ground zero, such hopes could be a bit too far-fetched.