Council Polls: Tie-ups of mutual benefit

By Sandeep Shastri

The competition between key political players in Karnataka will clearly be on display at the elections from the Local Authorities to the Legislative Council. Twenty five members will be elected to the Council from the Local Authorities this month. This election is extremely critical for both the BJP and the Congress and will also have important ramifications for the JDS and its future course in state politics.

Of the twenty five seats for which elections are being held, fourteen are currently being held by the Congress, six by the BJP, four from the JDS and one is an independent. Why this election is of political significance for both the BJP and the Congress lies in the current composition of the House. The BJP today has a strength of twenty six members from among the remaining fifty (the Council has 75 members). To be able to secure a majority on its own in the Council, the BJP needs to win at least twelve of the twenty five seats on offer. If the Local Authorities seats are to be left out, the Congress has currently fifteen members among the remaining fifty. Even if it were to retain its strength in the Local Authorities seats, it will still fall short of a majority in the House. The party would be hoping not to lose any more ground in the Council after the elections from the Local Authorities. For the JDS, it hopes to gain the maximum by bargaining with the BJP. The BJP and JDS could well have an alliance of mutual convenience to be able to counter the Congress. It is clear that in many of the Local authorities the rivalry is between the BJP and the Congress and in some cases, the Congress and the JDS, with very little space for a direct BJPJDS tussle.

The political optics involving an apparent bonhomie between the BJP and the JDS needs to be seen in this context. While the camaraderie between Prime Minister Modi and former Prime Minister Deve Gowda, at the start of the winter session of Parliament did gain a lot of attention in the media, it must be stressed that at the personal level this mutual respect is not something new and one has seen its public expression in the past also. What is of greater significance is the `meeting of minds` at the local level, especially in the context of the elections to the Council from the Local Authorities. It is becoming increasingly clear that an `alliance of mutual benefit` to counter the common political opponent (the Congress) is becoming more and more visible. If one were to review alliances at the level of local bodies, one notices that the JDS has been extremely comfortable forging a local alliance with the BJP in one district and stitching a coalition with the Congress in the neighbouring district. It has often been the king-maker and helped both Congress and the BJP in different political contexts and varied local situations. The political trade-offs have taken several innovative forms.

The Legislative Council elections being an indirect election from the local authorities, does not involve the participation of citizens directly as voters. A crucial role in determining the electoral outcomes will be the stand taken by the three key political parties in the fray. Given the opportunity that the BJP has to secure a majority in the Legislative Council, it would surely aim at maximizing its chances for securing as many seats as possible. If this were to involve a tacit or open alliance with the JDS in some of the local authorities, it may not be averse to such an understanding. One has noticed in the past, that when the BJP is in direct competition with the Congress, it has often struck alliances with state based parties. This has helped it challenge the Congress more effectively. The same strategy could well be in play in the current elections to the Legislative Council.

After the setback in the byelections to the Assembly (where the BJP was not able to ensure a clean sweep) there is pressure on the state leadership of the BJP to come up with an impressive performance in the Council polls. There are already clear indications from the BJP leadership that the party ticket would be given to those with a track record of service to the party and its frontal organisations. Given the factionalism within the BJP, this may be an important move to ensure greater unity. The JDS on the other hand would hope to benefit from the BJP support in local authorities where it has a chance of wresting a seat from the Congress.

The long term implications of the alliances that are formed for the Legislative Council elections would be interesting. Would it change the framework of the political contest in the state where the principal competition has been between the BJP and the Congress with the JDS being in a distant third position? Not merely the results of the Legislative Council elections, but also the political gymnastics around the elections will be of crucial significance.