AIADMK at the crossroads

Seventy-two-year-old Ottakarathevar Panneerselvam, popularly known as OPS, is no newcomer to politics; he joined the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in the days after the venerable MG Ramachandran split away from the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in the 1970s to form his own party, AIADMK. A loyalist of MGR and later of J Jayalalithaa, OPS steadily rose through the ranks to become MLA, consistently winning his seat and earning accolades as a steadfast worker of the party.

His unswerving loyalty to the AIADMK earned him the post of CM not once but thrice when Jayalalithaa got entangled in legal tangles. Jaya knew more than anyone else that OPS would never cross the limits and would follow her biding, word by word and so he did till the AIADMK supremo passed away in 2016.

Since then, the party which bears the name of another titan of Tamil Nadu politics, CN Annadurai, has been caught in stormy waters with the feud between OPS and Edappadi Palaniswami, tearing the rank and file apart with the Jaya succession battle raging like never before. Panneerselvam was expelled from the party and removed from the post of treasurer with Edappadi becoming the all-powerful general secretary.

On Tuesday, the Madras HC rejected applications by OPS and others against AIADMK resolutions expelling him and his supporters. So is this the end of the road for the Bodinayakkanur MLA of the powerful Thevar community? It is obvious that OPS, who still commands the support of a large section of AIADMK leaders and workers, is not going to give up the fight and is set to approach the higher courts against the verdict.

But for now, he and his supporters face an uncertain future in the rough and tumble of Tamil Nadu politics. All political forces in the state would be eagerly watching the course OPS adopts in the coming days. Ruling DMK leaders would obviously be rubbing their hands in glee seeing the woes of the AIADMK, which remains the only potent opposition force in the state despite its dwindling numbers.

Panneerselvam has the option of cosying up to the BJP with which his ties have always remained cordial and maybe even join the saffron party, which has been struggling to gain a foothold in the state’s political scene. But not many see the likelihood of this happening for the AIADMK with 66 MLAs is still a potent force under Edappadi and the BJP may not like to burn its fingers by entertaining OPS at this juncture when his stars are not exactly on the ascent. That leaves OPS with the option of floating his own party or wait for the courts to decide on his future.

Tamil Nadu no doubt is witnessing a churning of sorts – and the big winner will be the DMK as the AIADMK grows weaker because of internal dissent and its inability to fill the vacuum caused by the death of Jayalalithaa. The opposition space in the southern state looks pretty vacant with the BJP with its four seats, the only party other than the AIADMK that can take on a resurgent DMK.

Though Edappadi did impress during his short stint as CM, expecting him to fill the shoes of Jaya would be asking for too much. There are many in the AIADMK who would be fervently hoping for a rapprochement between Edappadi and a much mellowed OPS so that the party can get back on its feet before the next polls. Or will the latest court verdict in favour of Edappadi propel the AIADMK and BJP to firm up ties dumping OPS?

One glaring fact stands out – the AIADMK is fast losing its sheen with its seat share slipping from 134 in 2016 to 66 in 2023. It’s anyone’s guess how many seats the party, in its present shape, will win in 2026. And there is no silver lining on the horizon – or a powerful enough leader – to propel it anymore to the desired heights of power.