Pawars keep one & all guessing

Maharashtra politics is back in the grip of a ‘maha’ churning with Nationalist Congress Party leader Ajit Pawar, nephew of party supremo Sharad Pawar, sending out confusing signals even while reportedly cosying up to the BJP. Ajit’s off-on affinity for the saffronists is not surprising as he had split ranks with the Maha Vikas Aghadi in 2019 to form a government with Devendra Fadnavis of the BJP as CM; however, the government was short-lived with Ajit resigning, maybe under pressure from Pawar senior.

So what’s driving Ajit to renew his ties with the BJP now? Sources say that the top court verdict on the disqualification of MLAs of the ruling Eknath Shinde faction of Shiv Sena is expected soon and an adverse verdict for the Shinde Sena could lead to a fluid political situation in Maharashtra. The NCP that has about 40 MLAs in the state Assembly could turn out be a game-changer in such a situation, which perhaps explains why Sharad Pawar has in recent weeks and months, been going soft on PM Modi and the BJP.

He had sent shudders through the Opposition ranks remarking that the Adani group is being targeted, which went against the generally accepted line of the Opposition that only a JPC probe would be able to bring out the truth behind the alleged scam. The veteran politician had also raised eyebrows with his remark that the row over PM Modi’s educational qualifications was unnecessary at a time when the Aam Aadmi Party was trying to initiate a nationwide debate on the subject.

There could be other reasons why Sharad Pawar and his nephew are adopting a conciliatory stance vis-à-vis the BJP. Pawar is considered one of the shrewdest Indian politicians and knows that Opposition unity is getting nowhere with no acceptable national face to take on PM Modi. There is hardly a year left for the Lok Sabha polls and the Opposition campaign on the Adani issue or the ‘vindictive’ targeting of political figures by probe agencies seems to be fizzling out without creating the needed momentum.

Former Congress president Rahul Gandhi is set to fight a prolonged legal battle after the conviction by a Gujarat court in the Modi ‘thieves’ remark case and it remains to be seen how the Congress will resolve the issue of leadership in such a situation. Leaders like Mamata Banerjee, K Chandrasekhar Rao and Akhilesh Yadav are yet to gain pan-India acceptance with their popularity largely confined to their respective states.

Pawar could therefore be keeping his channels of communication open with the BJP so that the NCP could explore fresh ties in case moves for Opposition unity ahead of the 2024 Parliament polls reach nowhere. What is also disconcerting for the NCP is that it has lost national party status like the TMC and the CPI, and could be relegated to the sidelines as a Maharashtra-centric party – something a leader of the stature of Pawar, who was once considered a potential PM candidate, would find hard to digest.

Not that everything is looking hunky-dory for the saffronists and utterly bleak for the Opposition – in fact the results of the many Assembly polls lined up for this year including Karnataka could signal a tectonic shift in national politics. And if anti-BJP parties are successful in holding on to power in at least some of these states, it could set the ball rolling for significant political changes.

Right now, the Pawars are keeping everyone guessing about their future. And as the days go by, what’s becoming increasingly evident is that they would not like to be bereft of power for too long – a nagging factor that would perhaps determine the course the NCP takes in the months ahead.