United oppn faces diverse challenges in states

The ball has been set rolling for Opposition unity ahead of the all-important parliament polls in 2024 with 17 parties deciding to fight as one the ruling BJP-led alliance at the Centre.

What has raised the hackles of these parties is the attempt by the saffronists to snuff out opposition voices by slapping cases on its top leaders, some of whom are languishing in jail for months. Efforts are on to deny opposition-ruled states their share of resources, which includes Karnataka where the Congress government has been making plea after plea for rice from the Centre for its Anna Bhagya scheme.

And so, opposition leaders have started talking of a JP-like movement to oust the BJP from power. Their reference is to the mass movement in the 1970s when leaders like Jayaprakash Narayan, JB Kripalani and Morarji Desai led a spirited fight against the Indira Gandhi regime; it was preceded by a nationwide railway strike that virtually left the country crippled.

Finally, the Janata Party launched by these leaders did its task of getting the Congress out of power though the experiment did not last long with Indira bouncing back to power in three years. But it did prove that no leader is invincible, and with the right kind of planning, mobilisation and unity of purpose, the BJP can be shown the door as it happened in Karnataka a month ago.

There are discordant voices of course, which is but natural in a politically diverse country like ours – the Aam Aadmi Party has made it clear that it will not back any opposition efforts unless the Congress announces that it will oppose the controversial ordinance of the Centre that it feels will curtail its powers.

AAP leaders are also hoping the Congress will not push for Rahul Gandhi to lead it in the 2024 polls. These remain contentious points that top guns of the opposition will have to thrash out. ‘A common agenda and state-wise plans to defeat the BJP’ was the message sent out by the combined opposition at the end of the Patna conclave held on June 23.

While formulating a common agenda would not be too difficult at Shimla – the next stop for the opposition parties – considering the manner in which they have reacted in one voice on crucial issues concerning the nation, the formulation of state-wise plans will necessitate a lot more than mere saber-rattling.

For instance, the AAP will have to lend a shoulder to the Congress in states where it is an emerging force and also work out an alliance in Punjab and Delhi where it is in power.

But what would finally count is the opposition’s success in thwarting the BJP in the five major states – Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Bihar and Tamil Nadu – that together send around 250 MPs to the Lok Sabha.

While Bihar, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu may not pose much of a problem considering that there are well-knit opposition alliances already in place in these states, the big question that remains is about UP; can the SP, Congress and RLD join hands and pose a formidable challenge to Yogi Adityanath, so that he does not run away with the mandate in the 80-seat state?

In Bengal, CM Mamata Banerjee has already made it clear that if the Congress is looking forward to an alliance with the Trinamool Congress, it will first have to stop flirting with the CPI(M).

And Bengal is a state where opposition unity will have to be rock solid in the face of a resurgent BJP, which won as many as 18 seats in the 2019 LS polls.