Maha power games: Pawar in play again?

Even as there is uncertainty about the final outcome of the unsavoury spectacle unfolding in Maharashtra at the moment, it is safe to conclude that the script is ready for the swansong of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).

Having won over one more component of the shaky alliance to its side, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Eknath Shinde-led government have wrecked the prospects of their main rival being seen as a viable alternative.

Coming only a year after engineering defection within Shiv Sena, then heading the ruling MVA, the Shinde-Fadnavis combine have rendered the viability of their opponents questionable.

Not merely this. The coup within the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the induction of Ajit Pawar into the cabinet casts serious doubts if Maharashtra strongman Sharad Pawar can effectively lead the move to unite opposition parties on the national level in the run up to the General Elections slated for March-April 2024.

The message is simple: What credibility the campaign for unity among 15 divergent groups would carry if the drivers of the bandwagon are themselves so vulnerable to the machinations from the BJP ruling at the Centre.

Through defection of the NCP MLAs, the BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde-led party) has also ensured the stability of the ruling combine which apprehended trouble in case some of the Shiv Sena MLAs were disqualified in the defection case filed against them. The case has been pending before the Supreme Court for over a year.

Thirdly, in Ajit Pawar, the ruling alliance has an authentic Maratha stalwart under its fold prior to the 2024 when the State electorate would be asked to elect 48 Members of the Lok Sabha and 288 members for the Assembly a little later.

Fadnavis being a Brahmin and Shiv Sena generally being perceived as an OBC representative, the vacancy for the most dominant community in the State may look like being filled now. All said and done, the BJP-Shinde-led Sena alliance was an uneasy combination.

The BJP, despite being the major partner in the one-year old Government was not satisfied with the Shinde in the chief ministerial saddle. It perceived in him a weak and diffident leader who may be incapable of delivering all the 18 seats the original Sena had won in alliance with the BJP.

With a good portion of legacy votes still hinged to the Uddhav-led Sena, it was afraid of betting on the warhorse Shinde. In fact a good portion of cabinet berths had been kept vacant for over a year even as behind-the curtain negotiations were apace between the suitors and the potential defectors.

With Ajit and his acolytes having crossed the dividing line, it may now feel a safer future. The turn of events in Mumbai is confirmation again that it is power play, pure and simple. There are no ideological shibboleths even for a pretense or a smokescreen.

Evidently, most of the new defectors were facing ED and CBI cases for scams in which thousands of crores of rupees from the state exchequer were siphoned off. The BJP has won them by offering them an asylum against prosecution.

The major imponderable emerging from the episode is where it leaves Sharad Pawar, the rump NCP and the heir apparent Supriya Sule. It is worthwhile asked if the senior Pawar is the writer of the new script or a victim?