The US and China are in a hi-tech arms race that will transform warfare
Megha Pardhi
The shadow of geopolitical competition with China looms large over the recent cooperation agreement on Quantum Science and Technology between Australia and the US.
The joint statement identifies Quantum technologies as a “critical emerging technology” while reiterating commitment to “democratic institutions” and “to an open, inclusive and resilient Indo-Pacific region.” The statement also says that the two sides resolve to protect sensitive technologies with implications for national security, a reference to the alleged theft of IP and tech espionage by China.
Importance of Quantum science and technology
“Quantum science and technology” is a term used for a set of technologies derived from the theory of Quantum mechanics - which describes behaviour and properties at an atomic and subatomic level. This foundational theory of quantum mechanics is a basis of a range of other technologies. This includes quantum computing, quantum sensors, quantum communications and has wide-ranging applications in machine learning, cryptography, banking, robotics, biology, chemistry, etc. Some applications of quantum technologies, like quantum computing and quantum communication, have serious implications for national security, especially cyber security. For example, quantum supercomputers can perform some very complex computations in a matter of minutes which classical supercomputers would supposedly take thousands of years to solve. Such computers can break RSA encryption, the technology we use to encrypt and store our sensitive data, in just a few minutes. This would potentially make all our data and messages vulnerable to cyber-attacks.
China’s Shadow
The Australia-US deal is an effort to compete with China’s rapid progress in quantum technologies. In the last few years, China has made tremendous progress in this field. Chinese researchers led by Pan Jinwei, the father of quantum science in China, have made several breakthroughs in quantum science. China has also moved on to applying research to practical applications. The most notable application is the world’s first quantum satellite launched by China in 2016. Furthermore, the Chinese tech industry has started pouring money into the commercialization of quantum tech applications. The applications include quantum computing, quantum chips, communications, measurement, control, etc. Hence, US researchers and policymakers feel China can beat the US in the race to become the leader in this space.
Second, this is also an effort to catch up before Chinese tech companies start defining standards, like Huawei in 5G.. If Chinese tech companies succeed in dominating quantum technologies, Beijing will have a significant upper hand in setting the standards. The US is evidently not comfortable ceding this advantage to China.
Third, the US and Australia are trying to keep China from controlling the applications of quantum technologies in cyber security. Quantum science can be a key to developing robust cyber defence capabilities. One of the most attractive applications of quantum technology is the possibility of developing theoretically “un-hackable” communication systems, which Chinese scientists claim to have developed.
The development of offensive and defensive cyber capabilities is an important part of Beijing’s plan of modernizing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Chinese scholars have written a lot about their vision of futuristic warfare. From developing integrated battlefield command systems and unmanned combat systems to intelligent warfare, robust and impenetrable communication will be essential to prevent interference from hostile actors. Emphasis on robust communication is evident in the writing of Chinese scholars. For example, recently, some scholars from the National University of Defence Technology China highlighted “strong communication” as one of the factors needed to win intelligent warfare. Earlier this year, a team of Chinese scientists demonstrated an integrated space-to-ground network using one satellite and optical fibre cables covering around 2000 km. This is an important milestone that has further fuelled US’ anxieties. Experts from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, industry, and government were involved in the project. In 2017, an experimental civilian quantum network was also launched in Wuhan. As reported by Chinese state media, this experimental setup was part of the Shanghai-Hangzhou trunk line. It connected Wuhan’s governing bodies, financial institutions, and other agencies to the communication system.
Another factor for winning intelligent warfare and often highlighted by Chinese scholars is computing power. Wars of the future will likely require systems that have the capability to handle an enormous amount of data in real-time. In this context, quantum supercomputers do offer a significant time advantage while performing complex calculations. In 2019, Google claimed that their 53-qubit “Sycamore” can compute in 200 sec what a classical supercomputer will take 10,000 years. Chinese scientists have claimed to build a quantum supercomputer “Zuchongzhi 2.1” that is 10 million times faster than Google’s “Sycamore.” Although this is true only for certain types of computations, for now, it still makes quantum supercomputers ideal for applications where real-time processing is required.
If scaled successfully and standardized, China’s cyber systems would theoretically be impenetrable. This would give China a significant upper hand in future “informatised” warfare scenarios. Recognizing this possibility, world leaders have started to take note of the importance of quantum science. In a separate event, Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison emphasized that quantum technology is critical to Australia’s national interest and promised to fund “to keep strategic rivals from controlling industries from cyber security to medicine.” In the Quad leader’s summit concluded in September this year, leaders of India, the US, Japan, and Australia agreed to foster cooperation in critical and emerging technologies and cyber security. The US-Australia deal is a step in this direction.
Research in quantum science and its applications is still in nascent stages. Quantum technologies have to cross several hurdles to reach the capacities needed for applications discussed above. However, it is achievable, and China’s progress has demonstrated this. Several countries, including the US, UK, Australia, India, France, and Japan, have also realized the implications of China’s leap in quantum technologies on their national security. China is a common factor in this race for su premacy.
(Megha Pardhi is a Research Analyst (China Studies) at The Takshashila Institution. She tweets at @pardhimegha21)