Karnataka's rainfall woes: Showers expected to remain scanty till Sept

Maqsood Maniyar | NT

Bengaluru: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has not forecast heavy rain for the last week of August in Karnataka, terming the situation "bleak."

Initial hopes of rains picking back up in the second half of August appear to have evaporated. The weather department added that September would also not see a great volume of rain.

IMD said that north Karnataka was expected to receive comparatively better rain, but the old Mysuru region, including Bengaluru, would fare worse since showers in the area were dependent on weather systems in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, which were not forthcoming.

Multiple models have forecast "normal" or "below normal" rains in the last week of August and September. However, predicting the exact amount of rainfall beyond four days in the future is difficult.

Many parts of the state have experienced deficit rainfall. Moreover, with showers being reduced to a trickle, the situation may worsen.

"As per our forecast, we are not expecting any heavy or above-normal rainfall. Therefore, it's likely that the deficit will continue. The deficit figures may improve slightly, but the overall situation is expected to persist," said an IMD scientist.

He added that coastal Karnataka is the only region that may experience normal rainfall. He further mentioned that 'El Nino', characterised by abnormal warming of the surface water in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, might suppress rainfall in India.

"El Nino is currently very strong and is intensifying," he stated. The scientist explained that north India, on the other hand, has experienced heavy rain due to climate change, as the atmosphere's moisture-holding capacity has increased.

Additionally, melting glaciers in the Himalayas are contributing to the increased rainfall in northern India.

Dams not brimming

The deficit rainfall in catchment areas also reflects in the relatively low water level of reservoirs in Karnataka as of Wednesday.

Krishna Raja Sagar (KRS) Dam in Mandya district stood at 108.86 feet compared to 123.48 feet the same time last year. The maximum capacity for the reservoir is 124.8 feet.

The dam will reach dead storage levels at 60 feet, meaning the water will become unusable. The Kabini reservoir in Mysuru district has seen its water level hover around 59.7 feet against the maximum capacity of 65 feet.

Last year, the water level at this time had been 64.53. Hemavathy reservoir in Chikkamagaluru district maintained 109 feet of water but its maximum level is 117 feet.

Last year, the water level was 116.85 feet.

Old Mysuru districts among worst hit

The worst cumulative deficit rainfall for monsoon in the state was witnessed in Ramanagara district at minus 48 per cent, followed by Kodagu district at minus 46 per cent and Hassan and Chikkaballapura districts at minus 40 per cent each.

It has to be noted that the volume of rainfall regarded as “normal” varies for different districts.