Bargaining for a Future Sans Hope

M. A. Siraj | NT

Political parties in Karnataka have entered poll mode a bit earlier than expected.

The announcement of an electoral understanding between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal-Secular (JDS) on Friday should not come as a surprise.

Despite denials, the two parties were holding parleys to fight against the Congress whose steamrolling victory in the Assembly elections in April had caused dismay among the leaders of the two parties.

Even the reasons for dismay were different. The BJP had not expected a landslide win for the principal adversary, the Indian National Congress. As for the JDS, it was denied the ‘kingmaker’s’ role what with a measly 19 seats in the 224- seat Assembly.

Though the JDS has shared alliances and coalitions with both, the Congress and the BJP in the past, it is for the first time that it is entering a pre-poll alliance with the BJP, notwithstanding ‘secular’ in its nomenclature.

It must have been a tough decision for the party known for its deep dynastic traditions where three generations of family politicians are simultaneously running for political positions.

Nor even the BJP had any qualms of conscience for allying with a party that has been blatantly betraying ‘parivarwad’ without any sense of embarrassment for close to a quarter century. The crisis within the JDS is deeper than what appears on the surface.

The party could muster just around 13.29 per cent of popular votes during the April 2023 Assembly polls, down from 19 per cent in 2018 Assembly polls. In matters of seats, its tally declined from 38 to 19.

The BJP retained its 36 per cent votes, although its seats came down drastically. The Congress improved its tally of seats from 80 in 2018 to 135 in 2023 by gaining over 5 per cent votes, the same that the JDS lost.

With party patriarch and former prime minister H. D. Devegowda having grown old and extremely frail and his son and party leader H. D. Kumaraswamy in and out of hospital frequently, the party is beset with an existential crisis.

There have also been rifts within the family with elder son H. D. Revanna not being on friendly terms with Kumaraswamy. There were rumours about Revanna fielding himself as an independent candidate from the ancestral Holenarsipur seat prior to the elections, only to be persuaded to lower the banner of revolt.

The party’s hope of emerging as the ‘kingmaker’ in the event of an indecisive verdict in April elections were dashed with the Congress racing much ahead of its adversaries.

Abysmal performance of the JDS is attributed to shifting of Muslim votes to Indian National Congress in the April elections by political analysts. This seems to have compelled the party to drop the pretence of playing secular and openly ally with the BJP although Mr. C. M. Ibrahim is the titular head of the party.

Not this alone. A party representing the Vokkaligas, the landed gentry, in the six to seven districts of southern Karnataka, feudal tendencies run deep into the its veins.

Over the last three decades, the party has increasingly jettisoned its socialist ideals with stalwarts such as Ramakrishna Hegde, M. P. Prakash, S. R. Bommai, and other such ardent Lohiaiites having faded from the political scene.

Those who joined the Janata Dal-United in the state around the turn of the century, were gradually subsumed within the BJP which had been spreading its influence within the state.

Now that it has been thrown on the side opposite to the ruling Congress, its dormant anti-Congressism has received a fillip and has come handy to make a common cause with the BJP.

With the JDS facing an acute crisis of leadership as well as ideology, the BJP smells an opportunity to consume the JDS rank and file with ease a la Shinde-led Shiv Sena in Maharashtra.

Political observers do not foresee this to take much longer and expect the State of Karnataka to turn bipolar before the turn of the decade.

Having extracted promise of four Lok Sabha seats being allotted to it under the alliance, the JDS may hope to save itself from extinction in near future, but the a tense future is all that can be seen looming ahead.