BJP-JD(S) tie-up born of desperation

On Friday, veteran BJP leader BS Yediyurappa caught many in Karnataka unawares when he declared that his party and the JD(S) led by former PM Deve Gowda had decided to firm up a pact for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

Under the arrangement, the JD(S) is likely to contest four of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state, 25 of which were won by the BJP in 2019.

There are reports that the BJP may cede to the JD(S) Bengaluru Rural (which it lost to the Congress in 2019), Chikkaballapura, Mandya, Kolar and Tumakuru.

Tumakuru BJP MP GS Basavaraj has announced his retirement from electoral politics while Chikaballapura BJP MP Bachche Gowda has been blowing hot and cold after his son broke away from the saffronists to land the Hosakote seat.

Mandya however could turn contentious with Independent MP Sumalatha Ambareesh who won with BJP support last time, keen to contest again. It remains to be seen if Deve Gowda’s party will sacrifice this seat in the Vokkaliga heartland.

Seat adjustments apart, the puzzling question is whether a tie-up between the BJP and JD(S) will lead to a radical tilt in voting patterns in a state which voted decisively in favour of the Congress just four months ago.

The overwhelming reason why Karnataka’s 5 crore voters gave the Grand Old Party a huge mandate was the promise of the five guarantee schemes, four of which have been implemented.

Women are now travelling free in state-run buses making umpteen trips to religious places which they had always dreamt of; a power subsidy for those who consume less than 200 units has seen power bills come down drastically.

And money is flowing into the bank accounts of women heads of families and Anna Bhagya scheme beneficiaries with financial aid being provided in lieu of grains.

Would the state’s electorate be tempted to make a radical shift and vote for the BJP-JD(S) alliance in the Lok Sabha polls in such circumstances?

Though cardinal issues which influence voters in a parliament and Assembly election are different, what finally matters is the mood of the electorate and that does not seem to have changed much since the Assembly election.

Not many political analysts therefore expect the BJP to win as many as 25 seats this time considering that the party’s image is at a new low. Party bosses in Delhi are engrossed in the fast approaching Assembly polls in states like Rajasthan, Madhya, Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana and have not given much thought to the state of affairs in Karnataka.

Even 15 seats looks a difficult proposition considering that at the state level, nothing is working in favour of the BJP right now. Party insiders are desperately hoping that people would be swayed by the prime minister’s oratory like it happened in 2019 though none of the magic worked in the Assembly polls.

So can the JD(S) give a boost to the sagging fortunes of the BJP? Hardcore Janata parivar leaders and former socialists have not taken kindly to the tie-up moves and this dissatisfaction could trickle down to the party’s support base in the Old Mysore region.

That the JD(S) is no longer the party it was, is evident from the loss of deposit by its candidates in 139 of the 209 seats it contested in the Assembly polls. Its seat tally has fallen from 38 to 19 and it has also lost the backing of a staggering 15 lakh voters.

A full consolidation of traditional JD(S) votes in favour of the alliance cannot therefore be expected. Many sitting BJP MPs are also facing massive anti-incumbency which could wreck their prospects.

The BJP-JD(S) alliance is one of ‘convenience’ of two dispirited parties which have seen their electoral fortunes touch the nadir and are now trying to salvage their fast depleting support base by joining hands.

And it will no doubt help the JD(S), more than the BJP, to gain a degree of respectability after the devastating Assembly poll defeat.