5 states to win, who’s got the upper hand?

The bugle for the electoral battle in five states—Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram—has been sounded belying the apprehensions that the Modi government would strive to delay the polls to merge them with the general elections slated for April-May 2024 for the Lok Sabha.

Tough contest is on the cards as 679 Assembly seats are up for grabs in these states, of whom two have Congress governments and one has the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the saddle.

Telangana is under the regional party Bharatiya Rashtra Samiti (BRS). Mizoram is though ruled by yet another regional party i.e., Mizo National Front (MNF), it is an ally of the BJP.

As per the schedule released by the Central Election Commission, over 161 million voters would be casting votes in various phases between November 7 and 30 in the states.

The fate of the contestants would be known on December 3 when the counting is expected to be concluded. The level of excitement has been building among the rivals months ahead of the announcement as could be perceived by Jan Ashirwad vs. Jan Aakrosh vs. Parivartan and myriad other yatras in the states concerned.

Stakes for the two principal contenders the Congress and the BJP would be particularly high in the key Hindi states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.

The three had gone the Congress way during the 2018 elections. However, rebellion and defections led by Jyotirditya Scindia in the Congress dislodged the party’s government in Bhopal thereby allowing the BJP to install its government and handing over a fourth chief ministerial tenure to Shivaraj Singh Chouhan.

Even otherwise, the two parties had either won or lost these election by a very thin slice of popular votes. It was only in Chhattisgarh that the Congress had received an emphatic mandate.

While it would be premature to predict the possible outcome, the BJP seems to be on the back foot in all the three key Hindi states. Agrarian crisis, drought, rising unemployment, disgruntlement due to unfulfilled promises, price rise and fissures within the party do not justify the optimism of its leaders.

Congress-ward exodus from the party’s ranks too might be a faint signal of the popular mood. There are definite signals that Chouhan is totally out of reckoning for the hot seat in Bhopal but ‘who after him?’ leaves a big question mark.

Nearly half a dozen other leaders are in the race to fill the void and disallow the party’s central leadership of taking the risk of announcing the CM face. Similarly, the defiant postures by party’s former CM Vasundhara Raje Scindia show no signs of relaxation in neighbouring Rajasthan although the internecine conflicts within the ruling Congress have burst out into foul-mouthed spats between Gehlot and Pilot at least twice.

Besides, the party’s image has suffered dents due to Meghwal vs Meghwal clashes too. Three-time CM Raman Singh too is clearly out of favour of the central leadership of the party in Chhattisgarh.

Plausibly, the party would be majorly leaning on the outsized persona of Prime Minister Narendra Modi for electioneering.

The rejuvenation being witnessed in the Congress ranks in Telangana following Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra, too points to the contest veering back to mainly a BRS vs Indian National Congress tussle thereby casting serious doubts if the BJP is any closer to the status of the main challenger in the southern state.

The results would be keenly awaited as the Assembly elections in five states serve as the semifinal in the runup to the general elections due for early 2024.