For BJP, Akhilesh is now the man to beat

Ahead of upcoming assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh, analysts say that with the BSP and the Congress barely making an impact, it is the Samajwadi Party, attracting huge crowds at its rallies, that has emerged as the BJP’s biggest challenge.

Ajoy Ashirwad Mahaprashasta

Akhilesh Yadav is drawing huge crowds at his rallies across the poll-bound Uttar Pradesh. Images of massive gatherings for the Samajwadi Vijay Rath Yatras flood the Samajwadi Party (SP)’s social media accounts even as the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) events dominate the mainstream media space. However, the bigger question on everyone’s mind is whether these crowds will translate into votes for the SP, which has emerged as the primary challenger to the dominant BJP.

In the recent past, Tejashwi Yadav’s rallies in Bihar and Amit Shah-led events in West Bengal also attracted large crowds – but they bore no fruit for their respective parties in the assembly polls. Is Akhilesh Yadav, the former chief minister of India’s most populous state, heading towards a similar outcome?

Political observers in the state do not deny such a possibility but emphasise that the political scenario in Uttar Pradesh is in a state of churn, from which the most likely beneficiary will be Akhilesh. What makes them think so? Veteran journalist and political analyst Ramdutt Tripathi believes that there is a visible shift in the ranks of Brahmins and non-Jatav Dalits towards the SP. “These sections voted for the BJP in the last few elections and contribute significantly to the electoral equation. However, it is too early to predict whether the SP will be able to sustain the momentum with any certainty. There is, however, one clear trend. The BJP’s social base is cracking. But whether it will be enough for the SP to come to power is unclear,” he says. Over the last two years, the SP has successfully pivoted the electoral campaign towards livelihood issues while highlighting the Adityanathled state government’s failures to contain rising unemployment and massive distress at all levels during the pandemic. It has been able to remind the electorate of the development work during Akhilesh’s chief ministerial tenure, which is the reason that the SP president enjoys significant goodwill among all sections – despite losing to the BJP quite abysmally in the 2017 assembly polls.

Since caste and community support conventionally rule the electoral equations in UP, the SP has also shown promptness in widening its social base beyond the confines of Yadav and Muslim groups.

Akhilesh has not only allied with smaller single caste parties like the Mahan Dal, O.P. Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, formerly a BJP ally, the Jat-led Rashtriya Lok Dal and the Sanjay Chauhan-led Janwadi Party (Socialist) but has also resolved his dispute with his uncle Shivpal Yadav who had managed to dent his prospects in around 40 seats in the last assembly polls. At the same time, he has also successfully poached influential leaders from the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Congress to widen his appeal among different caste groups.

With the BSP barely showing any initiative to take on the dominant BJP and the Congress losing much of its influence in the state despite running a spirited campaign under Priyanka Gandhi’s leadership, the SP has emerged as the frontal challenger to the BJP.

As per ground reporters, Akhilesh’s rallies have attracted a fair degree of spontaneous turnouts, apart from those who have traditionally supported the SP. This reflects his popularity in the state, even if it may not be enough to defeat the BJP – which enjoys nearly 40% of the vote share in the state, far ahead of other parties. The optics of such a turnout contrasts that of the gatherings in Narendra Modi and Adityanath’s rallies, where the state machinery was employed to bring people from various regions of the state.

Can SP breach the gap?

However, with the BJP showing some weaknesses, the moot question is whether the SP will be able to breach the gap to secure a majority in the assembly.

Samajwadi Party leader and political analyst Sudhir Panwar says it is not impossible. Panwar, who also teaches at the Lucknow University, believes that people of the state remember Akhilesh’s work and have missed the holistic welfare model – especially during the “disastrous” governance over the past two years. “The BJP came to power on the twin planks of Hindutva and development. However, Adityanath as the chief minister has only carried forward the BJP’s Hindutva legacy. He is not perceived as a development icon,” Panwar says. “With such a record, Adityanath will only enthuse the BJP’s core voters but not those who joined its ranks after