Five state polls to change course of Indian politics

On Tuesday, the curtains came down on the campaign in poll-bound Telangana where the election will be held on Thursday in the last phase of polling in the ‘mini general election’ involving five states.

Three days later on December 3, counting will be taken up and the results are sure to have a significant impact on national politics with India set to go to parliament polls in five months from now in April/ May 2024.

While the results of the Telangana polls may not have much of an impact on national trends with the Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS) of K Chandrasekhar Rao widely considered to be the frontrunner for the honours with the Congress a close second, what would be of great interest are the outcomes in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh; these are considered bigger states and the results would be a litmus test of the general mood prevalent in the country on the performance of the Narendra Modi government at the Centre and the BJP and Congress governments in the three states.

There would be nothing more nightmarish for the ruling BJP at the Centre than a sweeping verdict in favour of the Congress in the three states like it happened in Karnataka six months ago.

For the BJP had deployed its entire poll machinery and its frontline leaders including PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah for the campaign realising how crucial the verdict is.

A loss in Madhya Pradesh, considered one of the crucibles of Hindutva politics, would be considered a severe indictment of the manner in which then CM Kamal Nath was deposed in 2020 just 2 years after winning the Assembly polls when a faction of Congress MLAs owing allegiance to Union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia crossed the floor to join the BJP.

It would also be a thumbs down on the performance of the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government and could spell curtains for the veteran leader and the three-time CM, who has made no secret of his ambition to rule the state for a fourth term.

In Rajasthan, it is no doubt tough going for the Ashok Gehlot government, compounded by the tussle between him and Sachin Pilot for the top post with the Congress high command managing to convince both leaders to put aside their differences for now and fight the polls unitedly.

On the other side, the BJP has been badly hit by a leadership vacuum with the party top brass in no mood to anoint former CM Vasundhara Raje as the CM face.

Union ministers like Gajendra Singh Shekhawat and Arjun Ram Meghwal and Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore have been in the forefront of the campaign giving enough hints that Vasundhara may face a tough time even if the BJP wins the state.

In Chhattisgarh, Bhupesh Baghel seems to have an edge though he could face some hiccups because of the Mahadev app scam with startling allegations being made that he was paid more than Rs 500 crore.

The results of Mizoram may not have much of a bearing on national politics though it could indicate the overall mood prevailing in the North-East where Manipur is still blowing hot and cold over the quota issue.

This is a region where the BJP has made heavy inroads in recent years and the last thing the party would like to happen is a negative vote for its handling of the situation in Manipur where more than a hundred people have been killed in internecine violence.

So the wait has begun in right earnest for the results, now just five days away. Anything could happen after that; a euphoric BJP could decide to go for snap polls instead of waiting till next year if it wins; A poll blow for the party could lead to a rethink of its policies and programmes and its tough stance vis-à-vis the opposition.