Congress split? Not till after assembly polls

The question is not when will the Congress split, but whether it will remain united under the Gandhi siblings

By Venkatesh Kesari | NT

New Delhi: With upcoming assembly elections in the five states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa due next year, there has been talk of a split in the Congress in political circles. The ‘G23’ syndicate, consisting of senior leaders and the Congress’ old guard, seem to have decided against splitting the party, at least for now.

According to some pre-poll surveys, while the Congress is in a sound position in Uttarakhand and Punjab, it continues to remain a minor player in UP and Goa. While the BJP’s numbers could certainly go down in UP, they predicted that it would still form governments in UP, Goa and Manipur. Though the Congress is banking heavily on the anti-incumbency factor, its prime ministerial candidate Rahul Gandhi has not proven to be a vote catcher, whether in the Lok Sabha or in assembly polls, ever since he became active in the organisation. But Priyanka’s vote catching capacity will be tested in the UP polls.

‘Soniaji is wise…protecting Rahul Gandhi like a mother protects her premature-born baby in an incubator,” said a sitting Lok Sabha member, who did not want to be named.

While the Gandhi siblings are facing the huge challenge of proving themselves as vote catchers like their grandmother Indira Gandhi was, ambitious Congressmen are in no hurry and could wait till 2024. Sonia brought the Congress back to power by assembling a coalition under the UPA in 2004, which remained in power for ten years. But this also demonstrated the Gandhi family’s inability to win elections on their own. And Indian politics changed after the emergence of PM Narendra Modi in 2014. The Congress, under the NehruGandhi family, could not get numbers required for a recognised Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha.

The fence-sitters in the Congress are looking for options other than Rahul and Priyanka. They have seen chief ministers like Mamata Banerjee and Y. S. Jaganmohan Reddy, as well as senior leaders like Sharad Pawar, build their own political parties and remain relevant in politics.

The Congress under the leadership of Nehru-Gandhi family has not been able to break the Hindu vote bank created by the BJP under Modi, and nor has it weakened Mandalite parties like the SP, the RJD and the BSP in the Hindi heartland. Besides which, it remains unclear potential Congress allies like Arvind Kejriwal, Akhilesh Yadav, Tejaswi Yadav and M. K. Stalin will accept Rahul Gandhi as a PM. Sources said the question is not when will the Congress split, but whether it will remain united under the Gandhi siblings.