On the Cong debacle in Haryana

The most unexpected happened in Haryana as far as the expectations of the Congress party or the INDIA bloc are concerned. Or did it happen because the party did not read the ground realities correctly? Overconfidence, factionalism and too much dependence on two communities cost the Congress dearly in the assembly elections in Haryana, party insiders have said, albeit anonymously. The victory of the Congress-National Conference alliance in Jammu and Kashmir was a saving grace, though the Congress could win only six seats out of over 30 it contested and fared very poorly in Jammu. In Haryana, surprisingly the Congress managed over 39 per cent vote share, the difference with BJP being less than one per cent, yet failed to oust the BJP. The BJP on the other hand, made significant inroads into the Dalit seats and Jat strongholds.

This was a fact the Congress failed to realise while taking the support of the two communities for granted. The BJP sprang a surprise winning eight out of the seventeen SC seats, while Congress secured victory in the remaining nine SC seats according to the Election Commission data. Among several steps to woo the Dalit community, the Nawab Saini government accepted the report of the Haryana Scheduled Caste Commission after the Supreme Court had held that states were constitutionally empowered to make subclassifications within the SCs. Reservation in government jobs also seems to have worked in favour of the saffron party. The BJP also won a significant number of seats in constituencies which were considered Jat strongholds. The Jat votes constitute nearly 25 per cent of the state's population and Dalit votes nearly 20 per cent. Significantly, the BJP also focused on its outreach to non-Jat votes; Home Minister Amit Shah’s masterstroke of replacing then CM Manohar Lal Khattar with OBC face Saini is a case in point.

Notably, OBCs constitute nearly 35 per cent of the state population. Another major reason behind the BJP's unprecedented victory in Haryana was that it successfully countered the Congress offensive on major issues including unemployment, farmers' plight and the Agnipath scheme. The Congress had put all eggs in one basket-that of Jat stalwart and ex-chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda , ended up alienating other leaders including former union minister and Dalit face of the party Kumari Selja. Dissidents and rebels who were denied tickets (Over 2,500 ticket aspirants) spoiled the show for Congress with several rebels in the fray and around 10 of them making the decisive difference. The BJP was equally troubled by dissidents, but managed to quell the rebellion. The last mile people and voter management worked well for the saffron party, thanks to once again, Amit Shah, the master strategist.

Post Haryana results, Congress' bargaining power has dwindled , as allies are questioning why the grand old party failed to take advantage of 10 years of BJP's anti-incumbency while pointing out its failure to go for seat-sharing with INDIA bloc partners. The Congress will do itself a big favour to pay serious heed to friendly advice from its INDIA bloc partners to re-think its poll strategy ahead of the next round of assembly elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Delhi, and crucial bypolls in UP.