A Maha battle is on… to win over 9 cr voters

As the curtains fall on the filing of nominations for the crucial Assembly elections in Maharashtra, In-dia’s secondlargest state, all eyes are on whether the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) can upset the apple cart of the ruling BJP-led Mahayuti alliance. The polls will indicate if trends have shifted since the MVA trounced the Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha elections, winning 30 out of 48 seats and dealing a significant blow to the BJP-Shinde Sena-NCP (Ajit Pawar) coalition’s hopes of justifying their 2022 toppling of the MVA-led government.

There is deep resentment in Maharashtra over the manner in which former Shiv Sena supremo Balasaheb Thackeray’s son, Uddhav Thackeray, was ousted from power by a coalition of the BJP, Ajit Pawar and a splinter group of the Sena led by Eknath Shinde.

The first major election since Uddhav Thackeray’s government was brought down reflected public disapproval for this toppling, seen as or-chestrated by the BJP. In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the MVA led in as many as 158 of the 288 Assembly segments. Should this electoral trend continue, the Opposition alliance could soon find itself in power in Mum-bai, with a majority well past the halfway mark of 145 when the votes are counted on 23 November, after voting on 20 November. However, there is often a considerable difference in voting patterns between Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, where local issues and regional leaders play a decisive role.

A potential stumbling block for the MVA is the leadership question: the alliance has hesitated to project Uddhav Thackeray as the CM face, with Uddhav himself stating he is open to any choice made by alliance partners. The Congress, buoyed by winning the most Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra (13), would likely be reluctant to take a secondary position if it emerges as the leading party in the Assembly.

The Congress is set to contest the maximum seats, leaving the Uddhav Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP behind. However, failing to project a clear CM candidate, in contrast to the Mahayuti’s Eknath Shinde, who is widely seen as the favourite despite no formal announcement, could impact voter perceptions.Many believe the Ladki Bahin Yojana, which offers women monthly assistance of Rs 1,500 to 2,500, might strengthen the Mahayuti’s chances of countering the MVA challenge. Yet, the towering presence of senior Pawar works in the MVA’s favour.

Now in his eighties, many see Sharad Pawar as one of the most influential Opposition leaders, nearing the end of his political journey, which could generate a wave of sympathy for this Maratha leader whose career has shaped Ma-harashtra for half a century. Some analysts even argue that only Sharad Pawar has the clout to prevent the Mahayuti from regaining power.

This ‘Maha battle’ is underway, and its outcome may also influence the national political landscape, where the BJP-led NDA holds a tenuous grip on power. Will Delhi feel the tremors if Maharashtra’s re-sults deliver a blow to the BJP and PM Modi? It’s too early to say, as these two alliances battle for the hearts and minds of over nine crore voters.