Harris or Trump? Impact on India-US ties

On November 5, Americans will choose a new President for the next four years. World leaders are keeping their fingers crossed, awaiting the outcome of whom they will have to engage with. India, too, is watching closely. At a time when the world is facing numerous challenges in West Asia and the Indo-Pacific region, along with the ongoing Russian conflict with Ukraine and trade tensions between the US and China, the results of the US election will significantly impact these global challenges. As for India-US relations, the results could have an even greater influence.

Both nations have historically maintained a robust partnership, and the incoming administration’s policies will likely shape the trajectory of this relationship in several key areas. If elected, the new President may continue Biden’s policies. The US could maintain its strategic focus on the Indo- Pacific region, countering China’s influence – a stance that aligns well with India’s interests. This shared objective could strengthen defence and security cooperation between the two countries. The US and India have already deepened collaboration in critical and emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and clean energy. This trend is expected to continue, fostering innovation and economic growth in both nations.

Another area that may see change under Harris is trade relations between the US and India. Harris’s administration would likely emphasise economic resilience and reducing reliance on Chinese imports, which could present India with a greater role and advantage. This could open new opportunities for Indian exporters and investors, as the US seeks to diversify its supply chains. However, these expectations may face challenges. Harris’s policies might introduce stricter trade barriers and export controls, impacting sectors like technology and healthcare. Immigration policies under a Harris administration are anticipated to be more favourable towards skilled workers, including those from India. This could benefit the Indian diaspora and professionals seeking opportunities in the US, fostering stronger people-to-people ties. All of this is possible if Harris occupies the Oval Office on January 20, 2025. If the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, returns to the office, it could be a different scenario altogether.

If Donald Trump were to become the President of the United States again, it could have several implications for US-India relations. During his previous term, Trump emphasised a strong personal rapport with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, resulting in significant strides in defence and strategic partnerships. This relationship was marked by highprofile events like ‘Namaste Trump’, showcasing the deepening ties between the two nations. Trump’s administration maintained a tough stance on China, which aligned with India’s strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific region.

Such alignment could continue, potentially leading to enhanced defence cooperation and joint initiatives aimed at countering China’s influence. Additionally, Trump’s policies on reducing reliance on Chinese imports could open up new opportunities for Indian exporters and investors. However, potential challenges remain.