Trump 2.0 likely to deepen global climate crisis

While the US gave a resounding victory to Republican Donald Trump as president for a second term, leading climate policy experts globally opined that it might be the beginning of bad news for global climate justice. Climate experts are worried about Trump’s disregard for international agreements and refusal to provide climate finance, which they feel might deepen the global climate crisis. Trump winning the White House race is a big setback for global climate efforts, especially if he rolls back critical domestic policies like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), New Delhi-based think tank Centre for Science and Environment has said.

The US has historically fallen short in global climate efforts, particularly on financing support for vulnerable countries, decarbonisation and financial commitments to the developing world, and Trump's presidency will make matters even worse, opined several climate activists. Interestingly, outgoing President Joe Biden's administration showed stronger climate action domestically than internationally, however now Trump may roll back these critical domestic efforts, including the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), experts fear. For climate justice, mitigation and finance, the IRA is crucial because the United States remains the singlelargest historical emitter of greenhouse gases and the second-largest emitter annually. It is also the world's top producer and exporter of oil and gas, generating around 13 million barrels daily.

The IRA (and its role in achieving 50-per cent emissions reduction by 2030, below 2005 levels) served as a significant signal to the world that the US could lead on climate action. Now, a shadow of uncertainty looms large with Trump back at the helm. It is pertinent to mention that in his campaign, Trump emphasised his support for increasing oil and gas production, with "Drill, baby, drill" as a key slogan. He dismissed climate change concerns entirely. Trump had publicly called climate change a "hoax", and withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement when he was the president. He has said during his campaign that he would pull out of the Paris Agreement again. There are concerns that Trump would also consider withdrawing the US from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative too expressed apprehensions about Trump's victory. They termed it a profound blow to global climate justice and an alarming escalation of climate risk for the world's most vulnerable communities.

With COP29 talks starting in Baku next week and aiming to secure an ambitious new climate finance goal, this news makes the already challenging path to consensus even steeper and more uncertain. As the narrow window to prevent catastrophic climate breakdown closes, the world cannot afford to have its largest historical carbon emitter and top fossil-fuel producer to shirk responsibility. By stepping back from climate commitments, Trump's actions threaten to erode trust in a global system already strained by the indifference and inaction of wealthy nations. International non-profit Climate Group, said fighting climate change, financing the transition and taking action to reduce emissions have just become a vastly bigger challenge, which will be felt at COP29 and in the years to come, with Trump at the helm. The US, as a nation, has an urgent duty to lead, not undermine global efforts, experts said. Interestingly, Congress leader and former environment minister Jairam Ramesh too echoed the same concerns. Donald Trump's comeback has made the future of the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change extremely shaky, Ramesh said.