What the Trump presidency means to the world

A fastidious man driven by relentless dynamism, extroversion, great gusto, Donald Trump’s behaviour upon return to the White House can only be described less unpredictable this time. That’s all the good news that emanates from the hustings in the throes of dissipating heat. The man soon to claim the largest amount of authority on the face of the earth is all likely to perform an encore with greater aplomb. Among the key knowns of his policy postulates may be his advice to Israel to go ahead and do what Joe Biden administration has been restraining him to do i.e., empty out Gaza with greater ferocity, grab West Bank, pummel Hezbollah and possibly hit Iran where it hurts most.

Having bought the acquiescence of Arab monarchs, emirs and shahs through the infamous Abraham Accord during his last tenure, Trump would be keen to deliver more to the Zionist state he knows he cannot displease, given the huge weight of the Jewish lobby within the United States. His advice to Benjamin Netanyahu to wrap up the war in Gaza was although shorn of specifics i.e., either to agree to a truce or to expel the last of Gazans. His demeanour left least doubt that the latter was the preferred outcome. The two-state solution bandied about for some time, will now be out of the agenda. Beyond the Middle East, China, Ukraine and the European Union (EU) would be his prime concerns. China will be the foremost among them. Threat of imposing tariff as high as 60% against China is all likely to trigger a trade war between the two partners. While it is not certain if it would give any fillip to the domestic consumer industry in the United States, what is certain is that life would get costlier for the average American. It is to be seen how things pan out in the months ahead. A businessman to the core, Trump is not accustomed to rewarding lackeys, sycophants and hangers-on.

A keen believer of transactionalism, he has made it abundantly clear that he believes in deterring challengers through strength rather than alliances that accrue expenses. He will certainly ask Taiwan to cough up more money for protection against China raring to gobble it up once the US relaxes its guard. An alert has been sounded for the next door neighbour Seoul too. She will be asked to pay up $10 billion for the over 28,000 US troops stationed there. Currently South Korea pays $1.3 billion which is slated to rise to $1.26 billion in 2026. He may even explore downsizing the troop strength at the Camp Humphreys. Arrival of North Korean troops at the Russian borders do introduce an imponderable into the situation. Ukraine has already got the stirrings of change. Having shown a streak of sympathy and goodwill towards Putin, Trump is more likely to prevail upon Zelenskyy to make peace with Russia even by conceding the territory usurped by the latter.

He is in no mood to fund the war in the heart of Europe. Nor does Europe look at his return with any hint of glee. Goodwill and shared ideological objectives apart, Trump is all likely to ask its EU and NATO allies to pay more for their security rather expect the US to bail them out every time they are threatened. India may find itself on the same page with Trump on security issues but a confirmation will have to wait till he signals his participation in the next meet of QUAD to be held in Delhi next year. Yet huge goodwill between him and Modi is least likely to deter him from hiking tariff on imports from India or any compromise on deportations of over seven lakh illegal Indian immigrants.