Polls: ‘Maha’ impact expected

On November 13 and 20, a massive number of voters in India – around 12 crore, equivalent to the total populations of countries like Ethiopia, Japan or Mexico – will head to polling booths in Maharashtra and Jharkhand to exercise their franchise. There are undoubtedly high stakes involved, as a negative result for either of the major alliances the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or the Congress-led INDIA could create ripples in national politics with significant consequences. There is another reason why these polls are crucial: 47 Assembly seats across 13 states will also be up for election, and the emerging trends could indicate which way the wind is blowing in these regions.

These seats include nine in politically volatile Uttar Pradesh, where all eyes are on whether the Yogi Adityanath government has recovered from its poor showing in the recent Lok Sabha polls, where it lost to Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP), which won the largest number of seats. A setback for the BJP in India’s largest state would also signify a severe blow to the ‘Yogi style of politics,’ which aims to consolidate the Hindu vote with slogans like ‘Batenge to katenge’ that create a division between communities. All eyes, however, are on Maharashtra, where more than nine crore voters are set to elect as many as 288 legislators. Here, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), comprising the Uddhav Sena, Congress and the Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP, is making a determined bid to seize power after Uddhav Thackeray was toppled in a coup orchestrated by the Shiv Sena’s Eknath Shinde and the BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis. Both the Sena and the NCP have since split, and so these elections will also serve as an indicator of which Sena or NCP faction has the legitimate support of the people.

Amidst the rivalry between the different parties, one personality stands tall – the veteran of many a political battle, Sharad Pawar. Indeed, many believe that it is Pawar senior who could tip the scales between the two contending alliances and ensure an edge for the MVA in this fiercely contested election. In Jharkhand, Hemant Soren and the JMM are making a determined effort to retain power in the resource-rich state. Soren and his party are intent on playing the ‘victim card’ to the fullest after his arrest in a land scam case. In a state where regional sentiments are strong, and where the aura of Shibu Soren, father of the current Chief Minister, still looms large, it remains to be seen if the BJP-led alliance – comprising the AJSU, JD(U) and LJP – will succeed in preventing the JMMCongress- RJD alliance from retaining control. The major battle is undoubtedly in Maharashtra, and NDA partners like Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP will be watching closely to see whether PM Modi’s popularity remains intact or is waning.

Given the NDA’s slender majority in Parliament, a setback for the ruling alliance could lead to unease and even a potential rethink among BJP allies, which could destabilise the government at the Centre. Crucial states like Bihar and Delhi are due to hold elections in 2025, and the verdict in Maharashtra could have an impact on the fortunes of ‘Paltu Ram’ – a term used by many to describe Nitish Kumar, who has made several political U-turns in recent years. An adverse result for the NDA could lead to the shelving of controversial moves like the CAA, as a resurgent opposition led by the Congress would have ample momentum to put the BJP on the defensive in Parliament. The results will be out on November 23, and there are undoubtedly tremors building in national politics as India awaits the ‘Maha’ outcome.