Decoding the ‘Maha puzzle’ of a poll result

On Saturday, as the Assembly poll results trickled in from Maharashtra, there was disbelief across political circles. The Mahayuti alliance comprising the BJP, Shinde Sena and the Ajit Pawarled NCP had created a virtual tsunami winning more than 230 seats of the 288, leaving the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) comprising the Congress, Uddhav Sena and the Sharad Pawar group of the NCP, a distant second with around 50 seats. It has never happened in Maharashtra and this has also led to the tricky question of whether the opposition can even aspire to have a leader in the Assembly considering its heavily depleted numbers.

Many had expected a close fight with few expecting the Mahayuti to cross the 200 seat mark and now that it has happened, feverish post-mortems are happening on the reasons for this political ‘catastrophe’ for the INDIA bloc. Sharad Pawar, the icon of Maharashtra politics, saw his outfit’s number tumbling to a miserable 10 seats, while the Congress which had more than 40 seats in the previous Assembly, saw its tally slipping to a mere 16. There are many lessons from this ‘Maha’ debacle for the Opposition in the country. For one, it goes to show that people tend to trust a party or a political formation which is closely knit and has a well formed leadership with no ambiguity on who’s leading them into the battleground.

The Mahayuti, at every meeting it held, had CM Eknath Shinde right in the middle while there was no clear sign emerging from the MVA on who was at the helm with its leaders hinting that such sensitive questions would be settled once the polls were over. While it remains to be seen if Shinde will be able to retain his ‘kursi’ after the polls with the BJP securing a mammoth 132 seats - just 13 short of a majority in the Assembly, no confusion about the leadership role was apparent in the heady days during the campaign which did a lot of good to the Mahayuti’s poll prospects.

The many welfare schemes including the Ladli Bahan Yojana, pioneered by the Shinde government did play their part in improving the Mahayuti’s prospects; the ruling alliance did its best to put all its differences behind while doing its best to present a united front and it did impress voters. The MVA had an ageing Sharad Pawar on their side but it was just not enough with Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray a shadow of his former self and the Congress’ Nana Patole hardly fitting the role of a much needed, sagacious and experienced leader. And there was discord too which seems to have taken its toll with Maharashtra Congress poll incharge and Karnataka Home Minister Dr G. Parameshwara putting the blame at the doors of Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray. Anyone who reads between the lines as far as this pol result is concerned, would realise that the average Maharashtrian was looking for a strong, dynamic and trustworthy leadership which could effectively resolve the many problems the state is facing including agrarian distress. Ideologies and constitutional issues hardly mattered in this pitched battle where freebies and the promise of many more, did create an impression in the mind of the voter. And most of all, it was the front which presented a united and strong leadership which earned the trust of voters.

There are many lessons to draw from this head-turning verdict and more so because it has come barely five months after the MVA swept the BJP-led Mahayuti off its feet in the Lok Sabha pols in the state winning 31 of the 48 seats. So how did the dynamics change so fast? This is something MVA poll managers have a lot of time to think through and come up with credible answers which would clear the haze around a verdict which has left everyone dumbfounded.