Dam it! Will China dam hit India's interests?

As China defends its plan to construct the world’s largest dam worth $137 bn on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet, asserting that the project will not have any “negative impact” on downstream countries, New Delhi has more than enough reasons to be worried. India’s biggest fear is that with the construction of the super dam, China can and shall ‘choke off ’ the flow of water in the Brahmaputra, resulting in a severe shortage of water in the lower riparian states.

A 2020 report published by the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank, noted, "Control over these rivers [in the Tibetan Plateau] effectively gives China a chokehold on India's economy". India is afraid that the dam that empowers China to control the water flow, could also endanger India’s strategic interests as it would enable Beijing to release disproportionately large amounts of water, flooding the border areas wantonly during the time of hostilities. Even in the absence of a hostile act by China, India faces serious challenges due to the proximity of the super dam site, being just 30 km away from the Indian border in the earthquake-prone, ecologically sensitive zone.

India is also worried that there will be significant alteration of the downstream flow due to “hydro peaking”, a term used for creating abrupt artificial fluctuation in downstream flow. Even without the dam, on the one hand, Brahmaputra deposits huge quantities of fertile alluvial soil suitable for agriculture, but on the other, due to geographical and climatic conditions, it causes disastrous floods in Assam and Bangladesh almost every year. Significantly, there exists no bilateral water treaty between India and China. The two countries have an agreement as per which China must share hydrological data of Yarlung Tsangpo between May and October so that India can alert the downstream areas in the event of floods. But in 2017, at the time of the Doklam border standoff, China stopped sharing the data.

Data sharing resumed in 2018 but India has reasons to believe that China may withhold data when it suits it strategically. To counter China, and what can be best described as a knee-jerk reaction, India is also constructing a 11 GW mega dam (Siang Upper Multipurpose Project or SUMP) on the Brahmaputra River (Siang) in Arunachal Pradesh. However, the indigenous people of the Siang valley are vociferously protesting this proposed dam. The panchayats have refused to give consent to the proposed project under the forest rights act (FRA), not even for a preliminary survey and investigation by NHPC. A worried New Delhi has deployed armed police and para military to stop protests and to get the villagers' consent. There is an overwhelming feeling that for national projects, everyone should be consulted, caution and objectivity need to be ensured to avoid escalating the situation in a sensitive border state.

Chief Minister Pema Khandu described the project as a national effort to counter China, while simultaneously claiming that the dam would only proceed with the people’s consent. And also, the current minister from Boleng, Ojing Tasing, was one of the most wellknown anti-mega dam activists before he became an advocate of the project. It is time for India to take measures to protect its interests and bonafide rights as a lower riparian state, through stronger bilateral negotiation with China. While protecting national security, it should take its people into confidence and allay their apprehensions.